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Is HPQ a Broken Stock? Part 2

|Includes: HP Inc. (HPQ)

Is HPQ a broken stock? part 2
To read part 1 click here

In our May 18 report we put HPQ on our avoid list while it was still trading around the $47 level. We suggested that HPQ was a broken stock and had technically been taken control by the bears. Institutional accumulation had turned into institutional distribution and we suggested that HPQ could see prices 20%-30% lower. HPQ is down from that $47 level and now trading as low as $41 in after hours on Friday. It now appears our first target price of $39 is within reach.

What happens from here?
Trading in after hours is normally a very illiquid situation where one can see huge spreads and wider more exaggerated price swings. The big test will be where does HPQ close on Monday. Will HPQ close below the recent June and May flash crash lows of $42? If so then this could mean a further slide in prices is most likely coming. Our initial analysis tells us that we should see a short term bounce early Monday morning but what happens after this is what we really need to focus on. We expect a wave of sellers and shorts to step in and fade this bounce but how heavy will the selling be and will it hit new intraday lows? If they do knock HPQ down below the opening prices and look to take out and close below the $42 level then things could get ugly for HPQ over the near term.

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Disclosure: short, sell, technical analysis