I expect you know that this time of year, from 15th December, is officially Silly Season for traders. The markets are thin and apt to be flukey so many traders, including me, opt out at Christmas. This year is no different and if anything, there are more compelling reasons to take this position.
Over the past few months I have been looking at the trading videos from MarketClub. Today I had three videos from Adam Hewison’s famous digital studio. These videos take a look at some of the trades I have been following, namely in the Dollar index, crude oil and the gold market.
I am happy to say I seem to be in good company when it comes to taking a break from trading. Looking back at the Dollar index as far as March the various signals during the year there has been quite a conflict of signals. My main indicators shows a divergence with the MACD where the trend has been showing up while the market went down.
The crude oil.market has weakened to some slightly concerning levels so it is timely to look at this market. In the video you will see the special “Trade Triangles” that MarketClub use as monthly, weekly and daily indicators. In this case they are in conflict because as the trend is high so the market is weakening. So what are you to do about it? In this case I consider that we are in the Silly Season and once again choose to opt out.
We have seen the gold market fall a little from recent highs and right now that retracement is close to the 61% as shown on the Fibonacci tool. However the MACD is just starting to turn indicating an upward trend is coming. At the same time, the daily chart triangles are showing a postive sign while the weekly “Trade Triangles” point down. All this conflict indicates to me is that I should maintain m position and just watch the gold market until Silly Season is over.
If you are trading over the holiday period, good luck and keep vigilant but if you are like me, you will take a well earned rest and enjoy your Christmas!
Disclosure: no positions