UPDATE: The market is tanking, as the new job creation came in at just 430K, with only 40k or so jobs created in the private sector.
As for the futures: The Dow is off 169 217. The NASDAQ is off 32.50 40. S&P off 23.
The unemployment rate fell a little to 9.7%, but that's not what anyone's concerned about right now.
U-6, the so-called "real" unemployment rate, also fell a bit to 16.6%.
Original post: The expected range for today's jobs report is extremely wide, with estimates for new jobs created varying between 500k to around 700K, so you might say that at this point a number of around 600K is what's expected.
There's a lot more attention being paid to this number than the actual unemployment rate, since that could spike up merely due to more discouraged employees entering the workforce, and not actually be reflective of a worsening job condition.
Of course, the other big issue that everyone will be looking at is Census-related job creation vs. private-sector job creation, the latter being a more sure sign of economic recovery (obviously).
Already the Census has indicated that it hired just over 400K in May, and so private sector job creation would need to be at least 100K to hit the bottom of the range, though that would be disappointing at this point.
Beyond that, there's no obvious answer on what the market will do with the numbers in the event of a beat or a miss. Our guess however is that the US market wants this to be very good, since the last thing anyone wants to see are signs that we're wavering.
For more perspective on the labor market, see these 12 charts.
Disclosure: No Positions