Daily State of the Markets
Tuesday Morning - July 26, 2011
Good morning. Perhaps I should consider wandering off on another vacation soon because in short, if you liked Monday, you're probably going to love the rest of the week. While I have taken an oath to never, ever drag the dusty crystal ball up from the crawl space under the house, I am of the mind that there isn't likely to be much in the way of upside action until the two parties in Washington come to an agreement. And with Senator Corker today making it clear that the August 2nd deadline isn't really a deadline, well, I guess we're stuck playing the waiting game for a while.
Speaking of deadlines, raise your hand if you feel used and abused by both House Speaker Boehner and Treasury Secretary Geithner. Frankly, I've become accustomed to Mr. Geithner saying whatever comes into his head without any real regard for what market watchers might think. But when both Geithner and Boehner called for a Sunday night deadline (before the open of the Asian markets), I actually thought they were serious. Silly me. (And by the way, can I have my Sunday evening back now?)
Also on the topic of deadlines, Wall Streeters have been busy with their calculators and one bank suggested Monday that August 10th is a more realistic date when the U.S. might have to start getting creative with its checkbook. Another report noted that the U.S. Treasury has been taking in more money than it really needs recently, just in case a scenario such as we're seeing now played out.
However, it is important to note that just because there might be a net shortfall in the budget, doesn't mean that the U.S. is going to default on anything. Remember, the United States Treasury takes in an enormous amount of money each month and since politicians are nothing if not creative, we might be able to squeeze by for a couple more weeks without telling bondholders that they aren't going to get paid.
The point this morning is that there really is no hard and fast deadline for Congress and the White House to strike a deal. But it is also worth noting that the rating agencies have warned that a downgrade of the U.S. sovereign debt rating could happen in the not-too distant future if the powers-that-be don't get serious about dealing with the deficit. Remember, it was only a few days ago that Standard & Poor's threatened to cut the U.S. debt rating if a meaningful deficit reduction plan wasn't agreed to in the near-term.
While stocks did fall on Monday, there is one positive that can be taken away from the action. Up until the time when two parties starting holding up signs, pointing fingers, and calling their opponents names again, the market had held up fairly well. It seems that even the fast-money didn't really believe that U.S. lawmakers would be dumb enough to make a mess of this situation. The bottom line seems to be that since everybody knows what's at stake, nobody thinks the sky is going to fall. But, of course, that was before the politicians started acting like children again.
So, in light of the fact that the professional politicians still have some time to pound their chests and posture for their constituents before the REAL deadline (Congress goes on summer recess on August 6th!), I'm guessing that we're likely to see more of the same for the next week. However, after taking a look at this crystal ball, I'd best go find the power washer if I intend on using it again anytime soon.
Turning to this morning... The President took the deficit debate to the public last night via a televised address. And although Obama seemed to be pitching a deal that both sides consider dead at this stage, the plea for compromise did certainly sound reasonable at this stage of the game. Foreign markets improved overnight and the futures are pointing to a slightly higher open as the fear of default in the U.S. seems to be ebbing.
On the Economic front... We don't have any economic data to review before the bell but we will get an update on the Case-Shiller Home Price at 9:00 am eastern, and then U.S. Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 10:00 am.
Thought for the day... Remember that it pays to be open minded (in more ways than one)...
Here are the Pre-Market indicators we review each morning before the opening bell...
Major Foreign Markets:
- Australia: +0.92%
- Shanghai: +0.53%
- Hong Kong: +1.25%
- Japan: +0.47%
- France: -0.42%
- Germany: +0.11%
- London: +0.05%
Crude Oil Futures: +$0.54 to $99.74
Gold: -$0.80 to $1610.40
Dollar: higher against the Yen, lower vs. Euro and Pound
10-Year Bond Yield: Currently trading at 3.025%
Stocks Futures Ahead of Open in U.S. (relative to fair value):
- S&P 500: +2.63
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: +18
- NASDAQ Composite: +7.4
Wall Street Research Summary
- Mentor Graphics (NASDAQ:MENT) - BofA/Merrill
- Finisar (NASDAQ:FNSR) - Citi
- Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) - Iniated Buy at CLSA
- Navios Maritime Partners (NYSE:NMM) - Deutsche Bank
- Volterra Semiconductor (NASDAQ:VLTR) - Piper Jaffray
- Sprint Nextel (NYSE:S) - RBC Capital
- Eagle Materials (NYSE:EXP) - Stephens
- Rofin-Sinar Technologies (NASDAQ:RSTI) - Stifel Nicolaus
- Silver Wheaton (SLW) - TD Newcrest
- Harmonic (NASDAQ:HLIT) - BofA/Merrill
- Excel Maritime (NYSE:EXM) - Deutsche Bank
- Eagle Bulk Shipping (NASDAQ:EGLE) - Deutsche Bank
- Genco Shipping & Trading (NYSE:GNK) - Deutsche Bank
- HCA Holdings (NYSE:HCA) - Goldman Sachs
- Guess? (NYSE:GES) - Lazard
- Warrnaco (WRC) - Lazard
- SunPower (SPWRA) - Stifel Nicolaus
- ITT Educational (NYSE:ESI) - UBS
|Earnings Yesterday's Earnings After The Bell |
|Arch Capital Group
|Canadian National Railway
|Fidelity National Financial
|Owens & Minor
|Earnings Before The Bell |
|National Oilwell Varco
|T. Rowe Price
|Waddell & Reed
* Report includes items that make comparisons to the consensus estimate questionable
Long positions in stocks mentioned: CNC
For more of Mr. Moenning's thoughts and research, visit TopStockPortfolios.com
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are those of Mr. David Moenning and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Moenning’s opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations. The analysis and information in this report and on our website is for informational purposes only. No part of the material presented in this report or on our websites is intended as an investment recommendation or investment advice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed nor any Portfolio constitutes a solicitation to purchase or sell securities or any investment program. The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the editors of TopStockPortfolios and may not actually come to pass. The opinions and viewpoints regarding the future of the markets should not be construed as recommendations of any specific security nor specific investment advice. Stocks should always consult an investment professional before making any investment.
Any investment decisions must in all cases be made by the reader or by his or her investment adviser. Do NOT ever purchase any security without doing sufficient research. There is no guarantee that the investment objectives outlined will actually come to pass. All opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Neither the editor, employees, nor any of their affiliates shall have any liability for any loss sustained by anyone who has relied on the information provided.
The analysis provided is based on both technical and fundamental research and is provided “as is” without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. Although the information contained is derived from sources which are believed to be reliable, they cannot be guaranteed.
The information contained in this report is provided by Ridge Publishing Co. Inc. (Ridge). One of the principals of Ridge, Mr. David Moenning, is also President and majority shareholder of Heritage Capital Management, Inc. (NASDAQ:HCM) a Chicago-based money management firm. HCM is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser. HCM also serves as a sub-advisor to other investment advisory firms. Ridge is a publisher and has not registered as an investment adviser. Neither HCM nor Ridge is registered as a broker-dealer.
Employees and affiliates of HCM and Ridge may at times have positions in the securities referred to and may make purchases or sales of these securities while publications are in circulation. Editors will indicate whether they or HCM has a position in stocks or other securities mentioned in any publication. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication and may change thereafter without notice.
Investments in equities carry an inherent element of risk including the potential for significant loss of principal. Past performance is not an indication of future results.