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Softs, COT Style 01/04/2010

Our COT analysis of Cocoa continues to show a bullish COT profile with very low Commercial buying (bullish) and high levels of Large Spec buying and Commercial selling (bullish). While in the short term, our Elliott Wave analysis suggests that whatever direction Cocoa breaks, above 3321 added to a bullish COT profile would give us a rally to the 3531 level or a break of 3223 would suggest a wave c decline to the 1st EW target of 3148, the COT profile suggests higher prices longer term.

Even though Sugar reached our 27.30 target and we exited our trade, Sugar continues to have a bullish COT profile and an Elliott Wave target of 28.17 which would complete a wave C which seems to be unfolding in 5 waves. With Commercial selling high and Commercial buying low (both bullish signals), we could anticipate higher prices for Sugar if wave C extends with a target 30.35

While we're not currently in a Cotton position, the COT profile remains bullish, with Heavy Commercial selling and very low Commercial buying. Our Elliott Wave analysis suggests the 78.71 price level is where the C=A relationship is complete and given the bullish COT profile, we expect Cotton to reach.

We see Coffee continues with bullish COT profile, with heavy Commercial selling, low Commercial buying and Heavy Large Spec buying. Our Elliott Wave analysis suggests that if Coffee can break above 143.1, then a wave c of C would rally to our 1st target of 152.15 and possibly to the 2nd target of 158.1.

Orange Juice continues to have a bullish COT profile and while it has reached our 140.45 EW target, we believe the 145.60 EW target is very likely to reached too.


Disclosure: We frequently have positions in the Stocks and Commoditites we recommend.