OR 12/16 SPX resistance, pivot & support
Resistance R3 1805.14, R2 1898.02, R1 1786.67
Pivot Point 1779.52
Support S1 1768.26, S2 1761.09, S3 1749.72
For Weekly 12/16 -12/20 SPX weekly resistance, pivot & support
Resistance R3 1839.48, R2 1825.50, R1 1800.41
Pivot Point 1786.43
Support S1 1761.34 S2 1747.36, S3 1722.27
The USA stock market after hitting a rebound high at SPX 1812 early Monday the market experienced its first real, (not a point or two), week over week decline since late September. And its largest weekly decline since the last downtrend. For the week the SPX/DOW were -1.65%, the NDX/NAZ were -1.45%, and the DJ World lost 1.45%. On the economic front positive economic reports again outpaced negative ones. On the up tick: wholesale/business inventories, retail sales, export/import prices, the monetary base, plus the budget deficit improved. On the downtick: the PPI, the WLEI and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week is FED week, plus we get reports on Capacity utilization, Housing and Q3 GDP. Should be an interesting week before the following holiday week.
If we count in Wave labeling from the SPX 1814 was adjusted down one degree. Primary wave downtrends unfold in three Major waves, with each declining Major wave three Intermediate waves. Thus far we can count Minor a: 1786-1800-1779, Minor b: 1796-1783-1812, and Minor c: 1772-1783-1772 so far. If Minor c ended at SPX 1772, this would complete Intermediate wave A. And the market could rally into the SPX 1790′s. If not, and the market continues its decline below SPX 1772 the next support is probably around 1746.
Short term support is at SPX 1746 and SPX 1730, with resistance at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1814. Short term momentum continues to display a positive divergence. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal level now SPX 1786.
Support for the SPX remains at 1772, 1765 and then 1759, resistance at 1789 and then 1800.
The Asian markets were nearly all lower on the week for a net loss of 1.1%. Four of the eight indices we track are in confirmed downtrends.
The European markets were all lower on the week for a net loss of 1.9%. Seven of the eight indices we track here all in confirmed downtrends.
The Commodity equity group were all lower on the week for a loss of 1.1%. All three here are in confirmed downtrends.
The DJ World index is now in a confirmed downtrend for the first time since June, and it lost 1.45% on the week. Currently 70% of the world's indices are in confirmed downtrends.
Bonds continue to downtrend losing 0.8% on the week.
Crude is still uptrend but lost 1.4% on the week.
Gold is still in a downtrend but gained 0.7% on the week.
The USD continues to downtrend losing 0.1% on the week.
A busy one indeed. Monday: the NY FED at 8:30, then Capacity utilization at 9:15. Tuesday: the CPI, Current account balance, and NAHB housing. Wednesday: Housing starts, Building permits and the FED's FOMC statement/press conference. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, Existing home sales, the Philly FED and Leading indicators. Friday: Q3 GDP (est.. +3.6 to +3.7%), and Options expiration. As for the FED, chairman Bernanke will give brief remarks Monday at the FED's centennial celebration at 2pm. Best to your trading the last full trading week of the year!
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