Gold: Monthly Analysis
Summary
- February closed in the most bearish way.
- Technical indicators point down.
- Next target for the metal: 1640-1440.
Gold Futures - Monthly, Weekly & Daily
In the previous weeks I highlighted multiple times that if the Monthly, Weekly and Daily candles are aligned in a way that if any of them are closed below the November low - 1767.20 - during the next week, a further, possibly a multi-month downtrend would be confirmed.
On the weekend Gold closed in the worst possible way from candlestick perspective: all long term candles closed below the predetermined level of 1767.20. So what is the meaning of this together with other indicators. Let's explore.
Monthly:
1. Price continues to stay below 8 EMA; rejected once at 20 EMA.
2. RSI continues to decline after hitting 82 in August, 2020.
3. Monthly PSAR is on the dark side.
Weekly:
1. Bearish weekly 8/20 EMA cross, the distance between 8 and 20 increases.
2. Price continues below 20 EMA.
3. This week 20 EMA crossed below 50 MA.
Daily:
1. The most bearish alignment of moving averages: 8/20/50/100/200.
2. Death cross 2 weeks ago: 100/200.
3. Bearish 8/20 EMA cross is in effect.
4. RSI touched the oversold line. This could be a first harbinger of a reversal though.
Gold Futures - Daily - Mid Term Forecast
As you can see on the Mid Term Forecast chart, the price touched the rectangle area that I identified as a possible target for the end of correction. However, taking into consideration the very bearish combos of candles on every time frame, I would be expecting further downturn. From the perspective of Elliott Waves, the final wave of the correction is yet to be seen - this also supports the hypothesis of a continued southbound move. I am expecting it to target 1640-1440 area in this correction, the targets that I identified in the middle of August 2020 in the Very Long Term chart. The chart has not changed and I am posting it below for your reference.
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