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The Bigger Problem Just Made a "Peep"

A taste of things to come can be found in a Link to the "New York Times" here regarding the (Pending Home Sales report).  

I believe that the December housing reports will look similar to this, each showing signs that the market was on a sugar high that is now ending.  Housing is on the verge of a double dip.  To make matters worse, even after the tax credit was extended, indicators such as the Mortgage Applications and Conference Board/Consumer Confidence (Homebuying Intentions) show that there is no pick up on the horizon.  

While typically this is not the time to buy, it doesn't portray that people are "in a rush" to take advantage of "free money".  It is a sign that there is a more secular problem taking place, a deleveraging process and a higher savings rate.  What matters here is that the extended tax-credit is about to end (by April) and also MBS purchases will stop (causing mortgage rates to move higher).  These are crutches that were used to prop up the market.

Given this first sign and what I believe will be a trend, I do not like the odds that the housing recovery is sustainable.  

 This will begin to make the news rounds quite soon.



Disclosure: Short Real Estate