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MACOM Technology Achieves Short Sale Price Target; YY Inc. Stock Price Reflecting Fundamental Momentum

|Includes: Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), FB, MOMO, MTSI, UAA, YY

Summary

Macom Technology is leading our short sale model portfolio with a MTD decline of -26.6% for an assumed short sale gain of +26.6%.

YY Inc. is leading our long model portfolio with a MTD gain of 23.23%.

Both stocks were added to the model portfolios as of September 8, 2017.

MTSI is down -29.4% since being added to the short sale model on September 8.

YY is up +43% since being added to to the long model on September 8. Momo Inc. (MOMO), which is reporting 3Q17 on November 28, could be analogous long idea.

This is an update to our latest model portfolio report 36 Stocks for November 2017. A considerably more detailed report is available here

New Actions Required

  • Short sale model: Close position in MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI(short sale target). 

Sell Side Upgrades and Downgrades Today

  • Long model: YY Inc. (YY) was upgraded to Buy from Hold with a price target increase to $110 from $79.
  • Short sale model: MTSI received several price target reductions and a ratings downgrade to Underperform from Neutral.

Also of Note

  • Long model: YY after the market close yesterday reported significantly better than expected 3Q17 results and provides 4Q17 revenue guidance in line with consensus.
  • Long model: Arista Networks Inc. (ANET) late yesterday was resumed with a Market Perform rating and $235 price target by a sell side firm.
  • Short sale model: MTSI after market close yesterday reported a slight F4Q17 revenue miss and EBITDA beat, and provided F1Q18 guidance significantly below consensus.
  • Short sale model: Under Armour, Inc. (UAA) was maintained at Outperform with a $17 price target by a sell side firm.
  • Short sale model: MAT rebuffed a takeover proposal from HAS according to Reuters

Return Data

For the month to date the Core Long Model portfolio is down -0.64% on a simple cumulative return basis (sum of daily returns). This compares to the S&P 500 up -0.41%, the S&P 1500 Composite up -0.51%, and the Russell 2000 down -2.58%.  The Core Long/Short Model is up +1.65%.

Model Portfolio Stocks Presaging Sell Side Revisions

  • MTD 9 stocks in the long model have received 25 positive price target revisions, and 5 stocks have received 6 ratings upgrades from sell side firms, led by Facebook, Inc. (FB).
  • MTD 5 stocks in the short sale model have received 17 negative price target revisions, and 4 stocks have received 7 ratings downgrades, led by Under Armour, Inc. (UAA).

Latest Theoretical Returns and Price Targets

Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Additional disclosure: As a simple quantitative model based on fundamental rankings, our portfolio models do not take into account rumors or pending M&A transactions. Some theoretical return data reflect simple cumulative returns (not compound returns) and do not assume the impact of costs such as execution fees, margin fees, slippage, the availability of stocks for short selling, or any other kind of cost. There are limitations inherent in our theoretical model results, particularly with the fact that such results do not represent actual trading and they may not reflect the impact material economic and market factors might have had on our decision making if we were actually managing client money. We do our best to provide accurate information in this report, but do not guarantee its accuracy.