The market tumbled today like a broke Boy George on a floor covered with dong as consumer confidence continues to fade like LeBron James' Q score or Haiti. Consumer sentiment fell to 66.5 which is the lowest since August and below the most pessimistic guesses of those not paying attention (also known as economists). The drop in sentiment from June's made up reading of 76 was the biggest drop in two years and was well below the 75 guessed at by economists who eventually will understand that the old data they used to calibrate their regression models no longer holds in our fat tailed society. Newsflash economists: The world has fucking changed, people are all connected, and whatever correlations you saw in the past are now likely more spurious and outdated than civility, manners, and landing strips. Basically everything in the consumer sentiment survey got worse and that is as bad of a sign for future consumer spend as a "You must be 18 to enter" sign is at a NAMBLA convention.
According to a Bloomberg poll, seven out of ten Americans believe we are in a recession, but then again, four in ten believe in alien abductions and six in ten believe that Kathy Griffin is a woman, so whatever. The economic data has gone from marginal to whatever is worse than marginal and it's not clear what is going to stimulate the economy out of this except for maybe a Bobbi Eden promise to take care of businesses if they hire. In other macro news, inflation continues to be modest as consumer prices were down .1% spurring louder whispers about deflation where cash will be king, and not some lame ass king like George III, but a cool one like Henry VIII or Kong.
In other US news, the SEC pulled themselves away from their tranny porn just long enough to settle with Goldman for $550MM as related to GS's shady dealings with their Abacus mortgage CDO. The settlement will be among the largest in the history of the SEC with $15MM a result of the money GS made on the deal and $535MM as a punishment for GS being a bunch of asshats for the past 140 years. Of the fine, $300MM will go directly to the US Treasury where they can either buy 3 new planes for congress, help Timothey Geithner pay his back taxes, or hire Cintia Dicker to massage their data before they stick it in to a GDP model.
Along with a consumer nudging closer to life support (and unfortunately with a pre-existing spending condition, the consumer is no longer eligible for insurance to help them survive), earnings reports were marginally bad at best. BAC plummeted 9% and C dropped 6% after they released decent earnings but showed revenues to be more lacking than rhythm at a Republican convention or diction in an NBA lockerroom. BAC's revenues were down 11% and C's were flat but most worrisome was that the earnings beats were a result of reserving less for credit issues with BAC reserving $5B fewer than last year because apparently they developed retrograde amnesia sometime in June. Ugh. This is going to get uglier than an Amy Winehouse-Michael Berryman love child.In other stock news, GOOG revenue beat guesses but EPS fell short by $.06 as they earned $6.45 per share vs. analyst guesses of $6.51. That <1% miss of made up numbers was enough to...READ ALOT MORE....ANALYSIS OF JOEZ Q.....
Disclosure: Long GOOG