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7/27/10 Midafternoon Report: Consumers still confident the economy sucks

|Includes: AAPL, DowDuPont Inc. (DWDP), EPAX

The market bounced around today as it tried to find a direction like scientists are trying to find the elusive "God particle" (though apparently scientists have figured out where it isn't which includes Jane Austen's writing, Bernie Madoff's bank account, and Jamaica.  But newsflash Einsteins, you might want to check Brooklyn Decker's vagina because if the "god particle" isn't there, Nietzsche may have been right.).

Anyway, the big macro news was that consumer confidence fell to a five month low with consumers still worried about jobs, the potential death of fiat currency and subsequent return to the barter system, and Eliza Dushku's consistent refusal to do nude scenes.  The index fell to 50.4 from an upwardly revised 54.3 and economists had guessed it would come in at 51, so good on them for almost correctly predicting one number out of the thousand they guess on yearly.  That said, a drop in consumer confidence could lead to further declines in spending which is as good for the economic recovery as fat tails are for trying to forecast using gaussian assumptions, tickets to the Ford theatre were for Abraham Lincoln, or The World's Biggest Gang Bang was to Annabel Chong's pelvis.

In headline manipulatedly (and yes that is more of a rehetorical tautology than "free gift," "short summary," or "Kathy Griffin manly") positive macro news, the Case-Shiller home price index was up 1.3% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, .5% on a seasonally adjusted basis, 4.7% year over year, and 30% in the land of make believe where every party is as delightful as a rainbow.  Of course the numbers are more worthless than a hand job from a quadriplegic with carpal tunnel disease as the Case Shiller index uses a fucking three month average so inflated home sales from April due to the now expired the government tax credit are still in the numbers.  What we do know is that home prices are at least 29% below their inflated peak from four years ago, foreclosured properties are at record highs, and Sofia Vergara is hot.

The market remains at a headscratchingly confusing time (though if it were Money McBags' head and Diora Baird doing the scratching, that would be a lot less confusing) with macro data continuing to be marginally bad at best and yet earnings coming in moderately good at worst.  So which is the leading indicator and which is the lagging?  It is a question that is proving to be a bigger conundrum than anything the Sphinx, Hamlet, or Andy Rooney ever asked (go to ~1:13 in the video).

In Europe, all but one of the 27 members of the EU agreed in principle to new BASEL regulations, with only Germany holding out as they wait for......ALOT MORE TODAY.....ANALYSIS OF EPAX....

Disclosure: Long AAPL