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Dual Momentum Update:  23 June 2019

|About: SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF (SPTL)

Note the conservative move this month to a treasury ETF.

Recommendation is based on Kipling spreadsheet analysis.

Number of shares is based on a $10,000 portfolio.

The Dual Momentum model is well understood, particularly if one has read Gary Antonacci's book by the same name.  While I've modified the number of possible ETFs and employ a combination look-back period, the general philosophy is similar.

Dual Momentum Recommendations:  I've added two ETFs, both treasury securities, to U.S. Equities (SPTM), International Equities (SPDW), and U.S. Bonds (SPAB) for possible inclusion.  In addition, I added SH, a short-ETF for periods such as we witnessed in 2008 and early 2009.

In the following Kipling workbook or spreadsheet, the current recommendation is to invest 100% of the portfolio in SPTL, a treasury ETF.  Neither SPTM or SPDW are outperforming the SHV cutoff ETF so we would normally move to U.S. Bonds (SPAB).  However, SPTL is currently outperforming SPAB so we invest 100% of the portfolio in SPTL.  Remain invested in SPTL until the next review.

Should SH ever be recommended, I examine the recommendation every day rather than wait a month before the next review.

Within the Kipling spreadsheet are three different models or systems of security evaluation and projection.  In this review, I'm using the LRPC model.  Readers may find it of interest that I am in the process of conducting an experiment where the same set of ETFs are used to test the three different models.  These three Carson portfolios will be updated on the last business day of each month and performance results will follow.  The first review is scheduled for June 28, 2019 or this coming Friday.  If interested, go to my blog or this address ITA Wealth Management for detailed information.

Disclosure: I am/we are long SPTL.