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Breakdown Or Shakedown?

|Includes: SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY)

 

 

So the support/neckline at 1042 that every trader in the world is watchingright now broke down today. As I wrote last week, the pattern projects a decline to roughly 865.

 

However, we are now approaching the 38.2% retracement of the rally that began a little over a year ago. Volume and MACD (green lines on the chart) are also failing to confirm the new lows currently being made.

 

This leads me to believe that there is a decent chance that this will prove to be a false breakdown (aka, shakedown). Patterns like these usually work best when they go relatively unnoticed or there is some skepticism about them.

 

Sentiment is pretty negative right now and there are just too many eyes on this chart for a contrarian like me to give it much credence.


Disclosure: none