There was a period today where I thought my whole premise of yesterday’s post may be incorrect. I pointed out yesterday that the RVX was predicting an up-in-coming RUT selloff. At the point of my greatest doubt the RUT was up several points and the RVX was off over half a percentage point. These are not things a bearish prognosticator wants to see when he or she has just called some sort of top. However, later in the day the market began to point toward a sell off even harder than yesterday. The RVX was up and the RUT was up at the same time. Take a very close look at this chart comparing percentage change in the RUT vs. the RVX. At first every spike in the RVX seems to correspond with the RUT. That is generally common knowledge. Here is the less common knowledge: Upon closer inspection there is almost always a contradicting signal in the RVX relative to the RUT one or two days prior to a sell off or snap rally. In this case the RUT has a small uptick in both IV and Price. This is enough to make me very wary of any major long position, as well as any short vega position.