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Asian FX market wrap: RBA leave rates unexpectedly unchanged

  • RBA leaves cash rate at 3.75%, against expectations
  • They give mainly global reasons for not hiking, not local
  • Australian business confidence index falls sharply
  • Equity markets generally higher but with some exceptions
  • Gold slips $3 but stays above $1100

It was an exceptionally quiet morning and early afternoon trading session as traders awaited the RBA decision. The RBA has been quick to raise rates in recent months and has been generally very bullish on the global economy but the market is likely to wonder what indeed the RBA knows that it doesn't.

The AUD/USD was quiet in an .8910/30 range prior to the decision but immediately fell to .8835 and has traded in an .8883/.8945 range since. Initial support is at the December low of .8750 with more heavy stops tipped below.

EUR/USD tried to rally early in the day when traders tried to trigger stops above 126.70 in the EUR/JPY. This attempt failed and the cross and the EUR/USD have fallen back, particularly after the AUD selling began to increase risk aversion. Range: 1.3887/1.3935

USD/JPY has traded in a 90.60/91 range, once again buffeted by cross plays. Decent sell orders are noted just above 91.00.

Cable has traded in line with the EUR in a 1.5921/74 range. The Sovereign bids at 1.5850 are still said to be live.

Markets: Nikkei +1.2%, All Ords +1.7%, HK +0.2%, Kospi -0.9%. Gold -$3 at $1101.