The key level at the 200 hour and 38.2% retracement is giving both buyers and sellers anxiety. The price extended to 1.2507 - nearly 20 pips above the 200 hour MA. However, momentum could not be sustained and the price fell back to 1.2470 - 17.5 pips below the 200 hour MA at 1.24875. The uncertainty has all traders anxious as to the next directional move. Traders are piling on the fence and a decision will be looked for soon.
The hourly bar has just closed above the 200 hour MA for the first closing bar above the level since May 2nd. This should give the market a reason to cheer. So I will be looking for an extension higher from here. Can I be certain at the level. No. But risk can be defined and limited. The 5 minute chart held the 38.2% to 50% retracement at the 1.24656-1.24755. This too gives the nod from here to the upside. Momentum higher is eyed.