The 50% of the move up from the June 1st low comes in at the 1.2455 level. The 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) comes in at 1.2463. NY traders enter the day with the price right at these levels after the trend down today. If the price cannot get back above that 200 hour this trend may have some more meat on the bone to chew on. The next target is the low from Tuesday at the 1.2440 level. Below that the 1.2415 level.
If the price can get back above the 1.2463 and stay above, a correction would target the 1.24788 to 1.2488. This is the 38.2%-50% correction zone for the last leg down. The 100 bar MA is also at the 1.2488 level currently and coming down. If the correction holds this area, the sellers remain in control.
The trend down today started by holding the 100 and 200 bar MA (Threes a Crowd formation). The 100 and 200 bar MA were going sideways. The 38.2% level even held. This started the trend down. When there is a confluence of reasons at a single area, anticipate a trend
(If you want to learn more about Confluence and Anticipating a Trend, for homework this weekend watch rebroadcast of webinar from yesterday on Confluence Part II at https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/563295960 and the rebroadcast of Part I from Tuesday at https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/873605488)