The 1.2431-40 is the next congestion downside target for the EUR/USD (NYSEARCA:FXE) now that the 200 hour MA has been breached (this is now resistance). The support at the area comes from:
- 1.24314 - 61.8% of the corrective move higher from June 1.
- 1.2434 - Low from Friday
- 1.2440 - Low from June 6th
A move to test this level would extend the range for the day to 95 pips. This is still well short of the 122 average over the last 20 trading days. A break below that area looks toward the June 5th low at 1.2410 (the price bottomed against the 100 hour MA - blue line - on that date).
I would not expect a move back above the 1.2480 level (200 hour MA and the midpoint of the move down). I would think that a move above would suggest something else is up from a fundamental standpoint.