The broad markets proved how divergent they are on Monday. The USD gained in a swift manner against the EUR again, while it only picked up a bit of ground against the GBP. This happened as Wall Street turned in wide gains on the major indexes. Without any major economic data to fall back on, investors were left to sift through a variety of existing stories to gauge their risk sentiment. The U.S. will basically be quiet with statistics again today with only the Wholesale Inventories numbers due and expecting an increase of 0.5%. In many respects this will continue to be a quiet week of government economic publications from the States, tomorrow the Trade Balance data is on the calendar, but after that essentially it will be the weekly Unemployment Claims on Thursday and Consumer Sentiment reports on Friday. Meaning that investors will have to gear themselves to discussing and focusing on other issues such as the Sovereign Debt questions that hover over Europe and any lingering concerns about Wall Street.
The USD move on the EUR yesterday highlights the nervousness that remains regarding the European debt situation. Even as Wall Street turned in outstanding gains other international bourses particularly in Asia did not mirror the good outcomes, meaning that sentiment remains skittish. The gains made on the major indexes such as the Dow Jones and S&P were significant, but came only after a week of declines. Thus the spotlight will remain on Wall Street today and their ability to perform after the enthusiasm of the E.U. agreement to create a fund for its debt may have subsided. Additionally clues are coming from the commodities markets (except for Gold) as Crude Oil and other resources have been showing a distinct lack of demand. The USD will be watched by all considering its rather tumultuous moves under EUR centric pressure the past few days.
Volatility continued for the EUR on Monday as the single currency gained strongly out of the gates but slumped back to lows as the day progressed. Investors showed that their moods regarding the EUR remain on a razor’s edge. Early positive sentiment after the announcement by the E.U. to create a fund that would serve as a safety net for bond stability proved short lived as questions emerged. With little in the way of economic data to really move investors off of their attentive gaze regarding Sovereign Debt and the ability of the E.U. to manage their affairs - the EUR has traded in a whirlwind. Today will be light on data with only German inflation (or deflation as the case may be) figures due. Economic releases from the E.U. have been mixed at best the past few weeks and when the time comes for investors to focus on fundamental data again, they might find themselves concerned for the prospects of a genuine recovery from the continent as well. Part of the reason investors lost some of their positive attitude after the weekend’s announcement that the E.U. was firmly behind the EUR was because German officials have made rather tentative comments about the way in which it (meaning a large part of the E.U.) will actually examine and act regarding debt structures. While it appears that some investors feel the plan may work, there does seem to be evidence that not all are believers yet. The EUR continues to find itself under pressure and its trading must be closely watched.
Although the Sterling lost ground as the trading day came to an end on Monday, it was not quite the same downward slide as the EUR experienced. Two lingering clouds continue to persist for the GBP, the EUR centric shadows and the growing anxiety concerning the lack of a clear political picture in Britain. Gordon Brown resigned as leader of the Labor party yesterday, which opens the door for a possible coalition between Labor and the Liberal Democrats. This comes after talks between the Conservatives and Lib Dems failed to produce an agreement. Investors continue to have plenty to contemplate. The Bank of England’s monetary policy decision yesterday produced no surprises. Today the Manufacturing Production figures are on the calendar and are expecting a gain of .03%. However the two overriding themes for GBP traders will be the EUR centric storm and the political uncertainty in the United Kingdom.
Risk adverse trading swept over Asia early on Tuesday taking many bourses lower compared to their counterparts. The JPY continued to hold its ground versus the USD, and under the existing divergent market conditions the pair appears to be under the spell of a safe haven mode as sounds of volatility break out in the background from other spheres. Gold remains strong and is trading above 1207.00 USD as some investors continue to show a taste for the precious metal.
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