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June 28th 2010, A Week Packed With Data

After another GDP report from the United States investors cannot be faulted for scratching their heads and asking if good economic data is going to come anytime soon. The USD traded in a rather flat range against the EUR and did lose a tad more ground to the GBP. This week will be packed with data and the numbers will climax on Friday with the Non Farm Employment Change. It will be a quiet day of figures today possibly giving traders another day to consider the landscape, before positioning themselves going into what could become a volatile week if the caution that exists in the market turns into something stronger. Only Personal Spending will come from the States today and the result is expected to be flat. The Final GDP outcome on Friday showed that the U.S. economy expanded only 2.7%, which was a downward revision.

The U.S. economy is showing signs of struggling via housing, retail, and growth numbers. Tomorrow the CB Consumer Confidence reading and the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI will be released. On Wednesday the ADP report is on the calendar and news will build from there. Thursday will see Pending Home Sales and weekly Unemployment. All of this data will lead up to the main event on the schedule for this week with the U.S. government’s jobless report on Friday. Wall Street traded under dark clouds last week and investor sentiment remains fragile surrounding the equity markets, this as it becomes apparent that a lasting recovery in the U.S. remains hard to grasp. The G-20 meeting in Toronto this weekend failed to offer any resolute position on the struggling global economy and investors may be asking if any type of policy exists that will help the marketplace. ‘Agreeing to disagree’ seems to be the phrase of importance so far from Toronto. Thus the data coming this week will test investor confidence and the USD will feel the affect.

The EUR continued to trade in range on Friday as investors seemingly refused to push the currency in any particular direction. Uncertainty remains a focal point for the European Union Sovereign Debt market and questions still remain unanswered regarding long term solutions. News came out over the weekend that Greece will attempt to offer new debt issues in the coming month, which could send a shiver through investors. Data from Europe will be relatively quiet today with M3 Money Supply and the Germany Prelim CPI figures. Europe will remain rather tranquil with releases most of the week offering mainly inflation and employment numbers. There has been no fundamental change in Europe the past few weeks, and although we have seen the EUR trading with stability, traders remain a nervous group who appear to be taking advantage of prevailing ranges.

The Sterling has found itself doing better against the USD the past week of trading under the pronouncements by the U.K. government, which insist it will pursue austerity measures. There is little doubt that the GBP remains at the weaker side of its value against the greenback, but its performance the past couple of weeks shows that the Sterling does enjoy backing. There will be plenty of data from the U.K. this week, tomorrow Mortgage and Lending figures will be released and on Wednesday the Final GDP and Nationwide HPI will be published. The economic landscape in the U.K. remains murky and investors continue to show signs of caution like their global counterparts. The GBP has enjoyed solid trading recently and its range must be watched carefully.

The JPY like the USD remains a magnate for safe haven investors. Asian bourses have turned in tentative and negative results like Wall Street and its effect has made the JPY a favorable avenue. Gold finds itself at the higher reaches of its value and this signifies that a palpable amount of nervousness continues to stir throughout the markets.

Disclosure: No Positions