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How Many $BBRY Users Are Switching To IOS/Android?

|Includes: BlackBerry Ltd. (BBRY)

So it seems 1/3 of the users signing up for the Z10 are from non-BBRY platforms. Ok.

Positive interpretation:

$BBRY is able to convince users of competing platforms that they have a better offering and it's worth switching. Good, new revenue from new users. Proof the new business model (device sales only) could work.

Negative interpretation:

$BBRY is not able to retain it's existing clientele. The conversion rate among the much touted 80 million existing $BBRY users is very low.

So what happens now? What will the existing 80 million do?

  1. Nothing - keep using BB7 and below

Not bad for $BBRY in the longer term - since this translates to BIS revenues. And there's hope that a future product could meet this demand. (Perhaps the Q10, but I really doubt it).

2. Switch to a new platform - like iOS or Android

Very, very bad... loose revenue from BB plan and also loose potential sale of Z10. If BBRY can't convince 'em now...

3. What am I not thinking about? :)

Hence, the interesting question to me is: How many people are switching away from $BBRY as opposed to waiting, now that they've seen the Z10 / Q10...

Position

I still see no +ve signs for $BBRY. From the time I last Instablogged about $BBRY - it's been going down about 1% a day. (13.20 => 12.60). I expect it will keep falling...

Disclosure: I am short BBRY.