A Summary And Analysis Of Physican Comments On Leronlimab
Long Only, Deep Value, Value, Long-Term Horizon
Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2012
Summary
- summarize physician comments from recent investor conference call.
- analyze the significance of these comments from a clinical perspective.
The first doctor to speak: Dr Sidhamraju (SP) from Montefiore Hospital is quoted as saying "These patients were not going to be around in a day or two (because of covid-19), were able to survive that particular episode." "some of the patients came off dialysis". "something about preservation of end organ recovery." "lots of patients end up of with end organ failure and most if not all never recovery to the extent they did (w leronlimab). such as pulmonary failure and then coming off mechanical ventilation and oxygen." "another example is renal failure and coming off dialysis in a matter of 2 weeks is very difficult. CD4 counts were very low and remarkable recovery of CD4 counts."
2nd Doctor, Otto Yang, did not speak but previously has commented that he is "impressed and cautiously optimistic about leronlimab."
3rd Doctor. Dr Agresti. "all of our 4 patients who received leronlimab whose recovery may be due to leronlimab. most were on mechanical ventilation, 2/4 on dialysis. patients were not in clinical trial and used with compassionate use. Clinical improvement in as little as 24 hours, included improved blood pressure and oxygenation. 1/2 came off dialysis, the second patient only required intermittent dialysis and was not dose until 15 days after the infection." the latter " was one of our sickest patients and our team felt that he had a 0% chance of survival." He was the most remarkable recovery. He received 2 doses but were 14 days apart. 3/4 patients had decrease IL-6 and CRP post leronlimab. These were patients that usually would call the family to pay their respect and makes us cautiously optimistic."
4th Dr Recknor. "CD10 is unique bc had mild patients. also no time limit from initial symptoms. Leronlimab seems to work beyond 10 days and maybe up to 4 weeks." "another striking thing and even though blinded and some groups of patients did not get better and had adverse events and if look at the adverse events from treated and not treated groups vs placebo group was very different and tremendous and its also the number of events."
My summary analysis and conclusions based only on these comments is that in many ways there is a more than 60% likelihood that the drug works in covid 19 cytokine storm based on these limited comments and the mechanism of action.
As I listened to the investor call, I was compelled to also reflect on the patients that have been in my local hospital ICU and I can empathize with these doctors who strongly felt these patients were not going to survive.
Its not a fun feeling to know nothing else can be done and when you encounter these types of patients with a zero percent chance of survival, the reality is that many times there is never a miracle recovery.
What seemed to occur with leronlimab based on these reports is nothing short of a miracle. The sickest covid patients just dont seem to recover and they dont come off dialysis or mechanical ventilation in 99% of cases. The fact that 75% of Dr Agresti's patients had a drop in their cytokine markers and nearly both patients came off dialysis (one was on intermittent dialysis) is also amazing and telling.
Recovery of end organ damage is very rare with covid-19 and even a small amount of success nothing short of amazing even in clinical medicine. I am also cautiously optimistic and have heard from other doctors on twitter about other success stories with leronlimab. I place the likelihood of approval at least 60-70% based on both these anecdotal stories, the FDA requirements for approval (somewhat effective and not harmful), the mechanism of action and the biomarker findings. Finally, one has to also fully understand is that we now have doctors from all areas of the country who have seen a positive response: west coast: Dr Otto Yang, east coast: Dr Sidhamraju, south: Dr Agresti. There are others online who have commented on the success, both from Texas and Yale. The totality of the data and findings suggest a positive clinical signal. We have to wait for the FDA to agree to this conclusion.
Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are long CYDY.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.