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2-6-10 - Bears in Control - Weekend Market and Portfolio Update


1pm  (originally posted on Kudrna's Stock Market Blog)

We had another wild ride of a week with the bulls starting strong only to lose the control to the bears later in the week. Emotions were optimistic by Tuesday only to be met with all-out fear by Thursday and Friday. The shorts covered by the end of Friday which provided some relief but don’t let it fool you into thinking this bear market is over…I don’t buy that for one second. I expect next week to be all around negative as well but a better indicator of where our bottom is so that we can start to feel comfortable adding to our long term positions while also running some trading longs in the volatility. I prefer to see the momentum moving up before I start committing more of my capital rather than trying to call a bottom/reversal. Making those types of predictions are fun and exciting but often dangerous and overly risky. The emotions in the market are still filled with fear and as I write often, markets tend to be overbought for longer than anticipated and oversold for longer than anticipated. I believe this will last longer than we all hope unless you are short the market or running only trades throughout the day’s volatility.

Friday’s job report was not a good indicator of our economy getting stronger. If we stayed in the same format as previous months, we’d actually be sitting around 10.6% unemployment, an increase. With the new format, which I have no confidence in comparing to previous job reports, the household unemployment rate dropped to 9.7%. What is even more shocking is how major media outlets didn’t inform the small individual investor of this vital information but rather chose to tell you this proves the economy is getting stronger. You can make your own decision on that.  Read my thoughts on the topic HERE.

In my portfolio, I made some moves but nothing too significant. I closed out my SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD) trade for a small profit and by the end of the week, it dropped again so I added it back into my portfolio for another trade. I wrote about two high potential stocks with recent news about to take place in Cell Therapeutics (NASDAQ:CTIC) and GoIP Global (GOIG). GOIG has run up significantly even in this market to which I’m still buying. I’m trying to make sure I have a significant position at a favorable price prior to the release of their patented Go800 services this quarter. CTIC was down on the week with expectations of a poor review at the ODAC meeting next week. I’m keeping an eye on CTIC Monday and Tuesday in case any documents are released prior to Wednesday’s review as any verifiable bad news will probably send this stock down. I will add tight stops to protect me from significant downside risk in case this stock tanks but I’m confident enough to run the risk that the review will be positive and the FDA will approve Pixantrone in April.

Cord Blood America, Inc (OTCPK:CBAI) was down on no news. The worst news can sometimes be no news. I expect more contracts to be signed over the next few months and an acquisition this year to which we should see a significant jump. At that point in time, I will reevaluate my long term thesis and see if the stock price still has upside potential. With Matt (NYSE:CEO) indicating that the dilution is over…I’m willing to trust him (could be a bad move) and add more at favorable prices. I expect the stock to drop towards the 200 day SMA to which I will accumulate more aggressively.

Thermogenesis Corp (NASDAQ:KOOL) reported phenomenal news and earnings with the stock jumping 20% afterhours Thursday evening. I took some off the table on Friday for a nice profit and will let the rest ride as the good news isn’t fully priced in yet. We will have some volatility with the biotech sector over the next few weeks so I’ll keep an eye on it.

Outside of those, my watchlist over the next few weeks is Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Genius Products (OTC:GNPR), Impac Mortgage (IMPM), Sirius XM (NASDAQ:SIRI), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Altria (NYSE:MO), Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO), and StemCells (STEM).

Don’t get too emotionally invested in the market over the next few weeks. When you do that, you tend to make some bad calls. See you on Monday. Good luck out there.


Disclosure: Long GNPR.PK, IMPM, SIRI, JPM, MO, MRO, STEM, KOOL, GLD, CBAI.OB, CTIC, and GOIG.PK but positions can change at any time.