So AMZN had grown to be 5% of my portfolio, and that's including Cash (cash which is around 15% now... I'm otherwise mostly invested in ETF's and MF's). The single name equity section (and much smaller options sections) of my portfolio fluctuate around 30%, (so currently so when I heard the news on AMZN today, I halved my position... My cost was 770, and I sold at 995. I've been trimming profits in places, and taking offsetting losses while increasing my cash position over the last year-ish. For Amzn, my bet is that the price will go down to 950 or 5% down from current, before substantially going higher, if it goes higher.
If I were playing this in my options portfolio, I would look for a straddle. And I am thinking of writing a follow up as I flesh this out more, or more info becomes available in the marketplace. Messing with timing as well. But as of now, I have the equity portion to worry about.
I am going to put another purchase order in, staggered down in the market, because ultimately I think this is a BUY for a MEDIUM TERM investment, and would advise the same.. and to enter with caution, I do not think you will 'miss' entry to this one for entry in the next 3 months, but I do think there is more chance of down 5 to maybe 10% in the SHORT TERM. The LONG TERM call, depends on execution of these stores. They could be confusing themselves as they muddle into different businesses or they could stumble on adoption or execution or messaging of the new idea(s).
Amzn fresh we will have to see. My early eyes are on UX and adoption rates and sendbacks/success. I don't necessairly think WF is a slam dunk to the consumer that uses the computer in this way, their draw and allure, and premium price does not seamlessly sync with my opinion of amzn's other business model.
And when you're comparing the relative size of the market cap and real impact on bottom line is going to be in growing WF footprint. Perhaps Amzn's expansion to other businesses and adoption is a way for it to substantiate it's P/E ratio.
One thing that I think could really be wonderful however (especially for the WF crowd, and even growing that) is if they effeciently integrated the Amzn-Go markets, those that I heard about, with the seamless shopping experience. And doing to shopping in actual brick and mortar stores, what they did with online purchases. [this is an idea I need to flesh out more]
There's a lot to think about, and process, so I will revisit this post later this weekend, and/or edit this one to update it with new thoughts and to clarify.
I am not the most good writer, so please foregive that. And let me know any thoughts on the subject, if you agree/disagree or any data/ideas, or other things to explore pr vet any of my ideas.
[insert witty signoff]
Disclosure: I am/we are long AMZN.
Additional disclosure: Have some, may buy some more, may sell some more. The drama is palpable.