On my-March17, 2010 instant blog, I wrote about DIA “I see very strong resistance at 108. If DIA crosses this line, (I still don’t think so.) it is officially Bull Market.” Last Friday, DIA moved lower the low was: 106.92, the high: 108.17 and thus created a Hanging Man on /below the resistance line. I have noticed that Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is still moving under the Shoulder- Head- Shoulder neck line, while DIA has been moving on above the neck line (I mentioned on last blog). Last Friday, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) moved between low: 10,694 and high: 10,820 and finally it touched the line of Shoulder- Head- Shoulder of its peak of Sep. 2007.
I am not an expert at Elliott Wave theory; I checked out a book called “Elliott Wave Simplified” by Clif Droke at the Brooklyn Business Library last month and enjoyed reading it. My husband and I go there ones a month and check out trading books. Also my husband reserved “The Big Short” by Michael Lewis with 17 people a head of us! Now over 300 people are on the waiting list. I just checked up Half.com and believe or not the price is listed at $15.99. I can’t wait one year, I’ll place of order to Half.com.
So I learned about basic of Elliott Wave theory from the book. I learned that the fan Lines I often draw on charts are part of Elliott Wave principle. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has been moving on an uptrend channel since March 2009 and I see wave movement of 1 to 5. Let’s say last Friday was the top of the 5th wave. The 3rd wave high was 10,730 and last Friday’s high was 10,820. The Friday’s high was slightly higher than 3rd wave. What I know is 3rd wave has to be longest wave and the 5th wave should be higher than the 3rd wave. The books said most of the time we see irregular Elliott Wave on charts so it is difficult to analyze using as a tool. Also it says if the wave has equal length of 1st wave and 5th wave and long 3rd wave is the perfect pattern of Elliott Wave.
If I think about Elliott Wave theory, there is a chance that Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) would break the line of Shoulder- Head- Shoulder of the peak of its Sep. 2007 high and go up to11,100 area in the beginning of April. If so, it would create near perfect Elliott Wave. Although, either at 10,820 or 11,100 is the top, I think it is very possible that the uptrend channel started last March can end soon and then switch to downside channel.
This afternoon is a historical moment that it might change the health-care-system. The result would shake the market tremendously. I am not a fundamental analyst; I have no idea how it will affect the market. All advanced countries have government backed health insurance, but US. This is the most advanced country and there are people cannot afford to have insurance. Is something wrong with the system? I know, it is much complicated than that, but citizens should have health insurance it is a basic need.
Disclosure: I don't own DIA.