I project that it is possible that the Dow could come down to 10,750 area by the end of May. At that point, the Dow will decide its direction; - either going up to 11,500 area or finally deciding to go down to 9,350 area. If Dow does move up 11,500 area, this could happen by late July; this would appear create perfect shaped Elliot Wave. Finally I have a sense that the Dow will go up to 11,450-11,550 area. The uptrend movement since this February is the 5th wave (we could still middle of the 5th wave). After the Dow completes the 5th wave, it might change the direction to down side.
Towards the end of May, it is possible the Dow could move down side to 10,750 area. In the last two weeks, the Dow has made a “*Tweezers Top” on the weekly chart. The “Tweezers Top” is a Japanese candlestick and topping signal. For example: On the 2007 high, the candle body high on the 1st week of October2007was 14,066, the second week was 14,093 the third week was 14,092. Also I mention the “**Tweezers bottom” was appeared on the 2009 March bottom on the Dow weekly chart. “Tweezers Top” and “Tweezers Bottom” are one of the powerful signals of candlestick reading, and seen at the reversal movement pint on charts.
On my last instant blog, I mention about the Dow 11,245 is the Fibonacci 61.8%, beginning at March 2009 low 6,469 and top as of October 2007 high 14,198. In the last two weeks, weekly candle body heights were both 11,205; it is very close to the Fibonacci 61.8%:11245. I think it is showing critical moment on the Dow on the last day of 1st quarter. It seems natural that the Dow could reverse the trend movement for a little while.
I would like to mention about MACD. As you see on the Dow, it has been moving uptrend since March 2009. Last week, MACD level on the weekly chart was lower than MACD on 4th week January high (I assume it was the top of 3rd wave). Actually MACD has been moving sluggishly since last October. I will close look on MACD especially next couple of weeks.
Since this January when the Dow came down to 9835 area, I had been trying to read the possibility of topping high of the 5th wave. It is amazing that Dow went up this much high and it is almost complete the 5th wave of Elliot Wave. Now I feel like I have more clear view of this jigsaw puzzle and I am looking forward to see the result.
*The Tweezers Top is known as the one of the Japanese candlestick reading method that two or more candle lines with matching high and it is meaning of topping signal.
** Tweezers bottom is known as the one of the Japanese candlestick reading method that two or more candle lines with matching low and it is meaning of bottoming signal.
Disclosure: No positions