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Whats Missing In Newell Valuation

|Includes: Newell Brands Inc. (NWL)
Summary

Disconnect in valuation.

Questionable management and shady history.

Jarden acquisition was not that bad considering current share price.

Disconnect in valuation:

Net debt is 8.2B.

Roughly 8-10B asset sale left.

Lets say 4B more of debt reduction; leaving around 4B debt. 

Company can buyback 50% of shares at current price. That makes earning from 2.5 to 5. So it gives forward PE of 3.2. Insane with investment grade debt. 

Shorts are feeding on the fact that buyback will come at later phase; which was ill advised since Q4 sees most selling. 

Questionable management and shady history:

Heaving insider selling was seen in 30 range including CEO selling his shares. Plus lowered guidance 4 times in a year. 

Jarden acquisition was not that bad considering current share price:

Jarden paid with ~$20 cash per share and ~.8 Newell shares. If we consider current share price, newell paid roughly $35 per share; while Jarden was trading above $50 before merger announcement. 

All in all, this one is setup for 300% gain if asset sale happens as planned and management manages to buyback below $20. But management is incompetent. They bought millions of shares around $30+. 

Your thoughts ?