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A Glance in the Rear View Mirror, and Peering Through the Windshield

Jan. 03, 2011 8:48 PM ET8 Comments
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Old Trader's Blog
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Over the holiday weekend, I spent a bit of time looking back at my portfolio’s performance, during 2010, and was more than a bit gratified by a gain of 30.70% (including reinvested dividends). That’s not to imply that I didn’t make some mistakes!


Like a lot of folks, I doubted the staying power of the market’s recovery, and on two different occasions, opened and closed positions in SDS, before finally recalling, as the saying goes, the market could stay irrational longer than I could stay solvent. Not to suggest that the positions were all that large (roughly 10-12% of the portfolio), but certainly large enough to cause a notable drag on returns.


I did much more trading, primarily in PM miners, than I’ve done in the past, and although the trades were almost all profitable, I’m still down by 2% on my current position in SVM, having completely misjudged how volatile the stock could be.


OK, I’ve learned a few lessons; thankfully, at not too high a price, and spent the rest of the weekend trying to figure out what to do for an encore, so to speak. I’m actually content with the stocks that I’m holding, by and large, but they’ve run up so much, I find it hard to justify putting more money into them, at current levels. Because of that, I’ve started to take them out of dividend reinvestment mode, and plan on taking the dividends/distributions in cash. At some point, there will be a correction, and I’ll be able to add  to positions (assuming the fundamentals are still good) at lower levels.


Disclosure: I am long AVK, DHT, FTE, GG, JNJ, KMR, MMP, MO, O, PVX, SVM, STO, TNK, TEI.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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