The Morning Call
As you can see, the S&P is struggling around that minor resistance. However, that is better than retreating from it. The pattern looks like a consolidation effort. So, my assumption remains that momentum continues to the upside; though with the caveat that exceeding low volume, marginal breadth, a VIX signaling complacency and the bond, dollar and gold markets all pointing to a weaker economy, are negatives.
The long bond had a good week, closing above both MA’s, in a very short term uptrend and less than two points away from its twenty year high.
The dollar remains strong---above both MA’s and a short term uptrend. However, Friday, it gapped up on the open which, as you know, I believe will have to be filled.
Gold was off four cents on Friday but still had a good week, finishing above both MA’s and in a short term uptrend.
The VIX traded down last week even though prices were flat to down---a somewhat confusing performance but indicative of continued complacency.
When everything that counts can’t be counted---a great thought piece and a must read.
A great piece from Howard Marks---a bit long but worth the read.
Is the Fed too late, again?
Don’t expect any improvement in US/China trade relations at the upcoming G20 meeting.
Tech bubble 2.0.
Deutschebank about to launch ‘bad bank’.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
This Week’s Data
The June NY Fed manufacturing index came in at -8.6 versus consensus of +10.0.
Corporate tax receipts are much less than expected.
What I am reading today
Investment returns are never permanent.
Buffett versus the S&P 500 (must read):
Quote of the day.
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