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Monday Morning Chartology

The Morning Call

6/17/19

The Market

Technical

As you can see, the S&P is struggling around that minor resistance. However, that is better than retreating from it. The pattern looks like a consolidation effort. So, my assumption remains that momentum continues to the upside; though with the caveat that exceeding low volume, marginal breadth, a VIX signaling complacency and the bond, dollar and gold markets all pointing to a weaker economy, are negatives.

The long bond had a good week, closing above both MA’s, in a very short term uptrend and less than two points away from its twenty year high.

The dollar remains strong---above both MA’s and a short term uptrend. However, Friday, it gapped up on the open which, as you know, I believe will have to be filled.

Gold was off four cents on Friday but still had a good week, finishing above both MA’s and in a short term uptrend.

The VIX traded down last week even though prices were flat to down---a somewhat confusing performance but indicative of continued complacency.

Fundamental

Headlines

When everything that counts can’t be counted---a great thought piece and a must read.

When Everything That Counts Can't Be Counted

Counterpoint.

Growth-stock mania is bad for your financial health

A great piece from Howard Marks---a bit long but worth the read.

This Time It's Different

Is the Fed too late, again?

Should The Fed Cut Rates In June?

Don’t expect any improvement in US/China trade relations at the upcoming G20 meeting.

Wilbur Ross Warns Not To Expect A US-China Deal At G-20 Meeting

Tech bubble 2.0.

Tech Bubble 2.0: Software Stock Valuations Are Back To Year 2000 Levels

Deutschebank about to launch ‘bad bank’.

Deutsche Bank To Launch €50 Billion "Bad Bank" Housing Billions In Toxic Derivatives

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Economics

This Week’s Data

US

The June NY Fed manufacturing index came in at -8.6 versus consensus of +10.0.

International

Other

Corporate tax receipts are much less than expected.

Corporate Tax Receipts Plunge Far More Than Expected As Result Of New GOP Tax Law

What I am reading today

Investment returns are never permanent.

I'm Volatility?

Buffett versus the S&P 500 (must read):

Warren Buffett Versus The S&P 500 - Less & Less Oraculous?

Quote of the day.

Quotation of the Day...

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