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The Morning Call--Not Yet A 'V' Recovery

Jul. 17, 2020 9:20 AM ETBLK
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The Morning Call

7/17/20

The Market

Technical

After touching key resistance levels on Wednesday, the Averages (26734, 3215) fell back yesterday; though only slightly. And given their proximity to overbought territory, it is not surprising. The Dow finished above its 200 DMA for a third day (now resistance; if it remains there through the close today, it will revert to support). A successful challenge would clearly be a positive development. On the other hand, while it filled its ‘island top’ gap intraday Wednesday, it fell back at the close with no follow through yesterday.

Further the S&P looks like it could be forming a double top; not good. Still, there are more pluses than negatives in the indices technical picture. So, I am sticking with my assumption that the Market’s bias is to the upside---at least until/unless the Averages revert their DMA’s to resistance.

This Is The Craziest Chart You'll See Today

Gold was down, giving the first sign of momentum lost; the long bond was up (no momentum lost there). The dollar was up, bouncing off the lower boundary of its short term trading range. This makes the fourth time that boundary has held. So, clearly there is good support at this level.

Thursday in the charts.

Bonds Bid, Stocks Skid, As Banks & Big-Tech Breakdown

Fundamental

Headlines

The economy

Yesterday was really upbeat in US data land. June industrial production (primary indicator), capacity utilization and retail sales (primary indicator) along with the July Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index and the July housing index were quite positive. While weekly jobless claims were disappointing and May business inventories were in line.

Beware the coronavirus economy aftermath.

The COVID Economy In Suspended Animation

Business cycle indicators as of 7/15.

Business Cycle Indicators as of 15 July 2020

Expect more bankruptcies in the second half.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-15/father-of-the-z-score-predicts-a-surge-in-mega-bankruptcies?sref=loFkkPMQ

Overseas, May UK unemployment and average earnings as well as June Chinese

YoY industrial production, YoY fixed asset investment and Q2 GDP were better than anticipated. On the other hand, June Chinese YoY retail sales were really poor while June unemployment was in line.

The coronavirus

Estimates of world GDP lost to the coronavirus.

Political Calculations: Estimates of World GDP Lost to the Global Coronavirus Recession

The media campaign against Sweden.

The Media's Jihad Against Sweden's No-Lockdown Policy Ignores Key Facts

The Fed

Powell, Mnuchin and investors---friends forever.

The COVID Economy In Suspended Animation

Investing in central bank sedated markets.

Bond investors fear dearth of opportunities in sedated markets

China

As usual, the Chinese were lying.

https://www.aei.org/foreign-and-defense-policy/no-china-didnt-grow-in-the-second-quarter/

The bottom line. yesterday’s numbers give the impression of a ‘V’ shaped recovery; but to date, while the stats have been indicated an upturn is in progress, they hardly portray a sharp one. Still, good data is good data; so, I am thankful for what we got. That said, to have ‘V’ there has to be a continual strong advance in the stats; and we don’t have that---at least, not yet.

What we do have is a Fed (global central banks) that have and will likely continue to flood the markets with liquidity. So far, that has had a marginal impact on the economy but has propelled asset prices into the stratosphere. The big question is what happens when the onslaught of bankruptcies starts impacting the Fed’s balance sheet (see above) which contains low grade debt?

Fundamentals do not really matter much (must read).

Calibrating The Craziness

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $7.85 beats by $0.90; GAAP EPS of $7.85 beats by $1.05.

Revenue of $3.65B (+3.7% Y/Y) beats by $100M.

Economics

This Week’s Data

US

May business inventories fell 2.3%, in line.

June housing starts rose 17.3% versus consensus of up 15.6%; building permits were up 2% versus 6%.

The July housing index came in at 72 versus estimates of 60.

NAHB Housing Market Index: "Builder Confidence Rallies to Pre-Pandemic Level in July"

International

May YoY EU construction output fell 11.9% versus expectations of -23.0%; June CPI came in at 0.3%, in line.

Other

What I am reading today

Astronomers make new discovery in deep space.

Astronomers Discover Four Never-Before-Seen Circular Radio Objects In Deep Space

Cash remains king.

Cash Remains Healthy as the Pandemic Rages

Adam Smith’s anniversary.

Adam Smith's Anniversary - Adam Smith Institute

The transgender threat to girls.

Irreversible Damage : the trans threat to girls

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Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are long BLK.

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