Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

The Morning Call--February Highs Now In Sight

Jul. 21, 2020 9:10 AM ETJNJ
Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Value, Growth At A Reasonable Price, Dividend Investing

Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2010

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 46 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder. Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns, managing a risk arbitrage hedge fund and an investment banking boutique specializing in funding second stage private companies. Through his involvement with Investing for Survival and Seeking Alpha, Steve hopes that his experience can help other investors build their wealth while avoiding tough lessons that he learned the hard way.

The Morning Call


The Market


The Averages (26680, 3251) advanced yesterday. The S&P pushed above its June high, voiding that double top that was forming and leaving it open to a challenge of its February all time high (3393). However, the Dow was still been able to fill its ‘island top’ on a closing basis much less pierce its June high. Until it does so, it could act as a drag on the S&P. On the other hand, the VIX finished below its 200 DMA for a second day; a successful challenge would open the way to filling the February gap up open---support for the S&P. I am sticking with my assumption that the Market’s bias is to the upside.

Two common sentiment indicators are in complete conflict

Gold was up, making a new nine year high. The long bond was also up, keeping its upward momentum going. The dollar declined, ending below the lower boundary of its short term trading range (if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will reset to a downtrend). All this suggests a weak economy.


Monday in the charts.

Silver Soars As Turbocharged-Tech Sends "Greed' To Record High



The Economy


The June Chicago national activity index came in at 4.11 versus expectations of 3.2.

Month to date retail chain store sales grew more slowly than in the prior week.


June Japanese CPI was 0.1%, in line.


What happens if the government ceases to pay the $600/week unemployment benefit?

How to turn a recession into a depression

Update on six high frequency indicators of the economy.

Six High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

Never has so much been given to so many in so short a time.

Never Before Has So Much Stimulus Been Injected In The Economy In A Single Quarter

Commercial mortgage delinquencies near record levels.

Commercial Mortgage Delinquencies Near Record Levels

The coming rent-pocalypse and its impact on inflation.

The Four Horsemen Of Disinflation: The Coming Rent-pocalypse

The coronavirus

The race for a vaccine.

Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 Vaccine Trials Show "No Adverse Effects"

Fiscal Policy

GOP draft of new stimulus bill.

GOP Stimulus Bill To Include Payroll Tax 'Deferral' And Direct Payments, Reduced Unemployment Boost

EU nears agreement on stimulus package.

Europe Nears Agreement on Stimulus Fund With €390BN In Grants

The Fed

Trump nominee for Fed Board up for senate vote this week.

Trump's Hot-Button Fed Pick Faces Senate Committee Vote This Week

Bottom line. the news from AstraZeneca (see above) is a clear plus for the economy and Americans’ health; the big question is, will a vaccine come soon enough to save the millions of businesses (and their employees) that are on the edge of bankruptcy if they are not already there. So too the EU and US preparations to throw more money at their respective economies are a positive, at least in the short term. But all those funds (1) have to be financed, which just means more QEInfinity/Forever and (2) have to be serviced [interest cost], adding to the debt/GDP ratio that is already at a level to act as a governor on economic growth.

Investors are impervious to the need to pay the piper.

Irrational exuberance.


Is value investing really dead?

Value Is Dead. Long Live Value Investing

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) declares $1.01/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

What I am reading today

The most prosperous ancient nation that you never heard of.

The Most Prosperous Ancient Nation You've Never Heard Of | Lawrence W. Reed

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (Home | Investing for Survival | Investingforsurvival.com) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are long jnj.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.