Entering text into the input field will update the search result below

The Morning Call---This Is Just Mania And, As Such, It Will End.

Sep. 09, 2020 9:08 AM ET
Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Value, Growth At A Reasonable Price, Dividend Investing

Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2010

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 46 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder. Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns, managing a risk arbitrage hedge fund and an investment banking boutique specializing in funding second stage private companies. Through his involvement with Investing for Survival and Seeking Alpha, Steve hopes that his experience can help other investors build their wealth while avoiding tough lessons that he learned the hard way.

The Morning Call


The Market


The Averages (27500, 3331) took another beating yesterday with the S&P finishing below the lower boundary of its short term uptrend (if it remains there through the close on Wednesday, it will reset to a trading range). Clearly, a potential adverse development. On the other hand, the negatives that I have been dwelling on over the last month are dissipating: (1) two of the four gap up opens have been filled, (2) the VIX which was not in sync with stocks as they advanced remains out of sync as they fall, (3) the Markets’ overbought condition is being ameliorated but (4) unfortunately, September’s record as the worst month of the year for Market performance is not going away. And let’s not forget that both of the indices remain above both DMA and in intermediate and long term uptrends.

The worst time of the year.

The Worst Time of the Year Crossing Wall Street

The key in the short term is whether the S&P can hold its short term uptrend. If not, then we are likely in for more downside. But that does not change my current operating assumption that the Market’s bias is to the upside long term---and until QEInfinity/Forever either comes to an end or investors conclude that it has been, is and will be an economic disaster.

Gold was off fractionally, remaining below the uptrend off its March/June lows. Though it held a minor (July/August) support level. Still, its pin action is troubling. Ditto TLT which rose 5/8%, but remained below its 100 DMA. The dollar was up ½% and is trying to make a higher high. But its chart remains the ugliest of those indicators that I follow.

Tuesday in the charts.

Crude Crushed, Tech Wrecked, Banks Battered; Bonds & Bullion Bid



The Economy


Weekly mortgage applications rose 2.9% while purchase applications were up 2.6%.

July consumer credit rose $12.25 billion versus expectations of up $13.75 billion.

Americans Pay Down Credit Cards For 5th Consecutive Month As Post-Covid Deleveraging Continues


August Chinese CPI came in at +0.4%, in line; PPI was -0.2%, also in line.


Permanent job losses still do not match 2008/2009.

Greg Mankiw's Blog

States face dire fiscal problems.

With Washington Deadlocked on Aid, States Face Dire Fiscal Crises

Update on seven high frequency economic indicators.

Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy

A tale of two recessions.

'A tale of 2 recessions': As rich Americans get richer, the bottom half struggles

There is no recovery.

There Is No Recovery

The coronavirus

How we handled the virus was a mistake.

Were the lockdowns a mistake?

But Sweden, that is another story.

Sweden Close To Victory Over Coronavirus; Never Had A Lockdown Or Mask Mandate

The Fed

Ron Paul on the Fed’s brilliant new policy.

Ron Paul Pans The Fed's "Brilliant Plan"... More Inflation And Higher Prices

The flaws in Fed policy (must read).

"Averaging" Inflation Does Not Eliminate The Flaws In The Fed's Policy Approach, It Compounds Them

Bottom line. This is just mania and, as such, it will end.

Crowding the Market in Large Cap Tech

Interview with Byron Wien.

Byron Wien: "The Market is Vulnerable"

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

What I am reading today

David Stockman on crime and punishment.

Stockman Sidesteps 'Systemic Racism', Says Real Evil Is "Relentless Aggrandizement Of State Power"

Quote of the day.

Quotation of the Day...

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (Home | Investing for Survival | Investingforsurvival.com) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

Recommended For You

To ensure this doesn’t happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser.
Is this happening to you frequently? Please report it on our feedback forum.
If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh.