The Morning Call
The Averages (26763, 3236) maintained their downward move (very short term downtrend), posting a new lower high on increased volume and weaker breadth. While I continue to believe that the long term bias is to the upside, the immediate trend is clearly down. The good news is that both indices have multiple support levels in near proximity: their 100 DMA’s (26208/3159), their 200 DMA’s (26208/3097) and the lower boundary of their short term trading ranges (18213/2991).
Gold got whacked again, finishing below the July/August minor support level for a second day. While its long term trends are up and support exists at its 100/200 DMA’s, this recent negative pin action can’t be ignore. TLT rebounded slightly. That is a plus, but it continues to struggle to push above the trend of lower highs and its 100 DMA (now resistance). The dollar jumped another ½%, ending above the upper boundary of its short term downtrend (if it remains there through the close on Friday, it will reset to a trading range) and setting a new higher high.
If the dollar successfully challenges its short term downtrend, it would suggest either a move to a safety trade or higher interest rates. But TLT is resisting a move lower (higher interest rates) and is trying to push higher (safety trade). On the other hand, GLD is breaking down, pointing to higher rates or a move away from a safety trade. Of course, the drop in equity prices can mean higher rates or a retreat to safety. In short confusion. Time to be careful.
VIX term structure shows rising uncertainty.
Interactive Brokers hikes margin requirements.
Wednesday in the charts.
Weekly jobless claims rose by 870,000 versus consensus of 843,000.
The September flash manufacturing PMI came in at 53.5 versus forecasts of 53.1; the services PMI was 54.6 versus 54.7; the composite PMI was 54.4 versus 53.0.
The September German business climate index was reported at 92.6 versus expectations of 93.0; the current conditions index was 87.9 versus 89.0.
Liberty or lockdown.
Estimating future stock returns.
The most dangerous investment move you can make (must read).
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
FactSet Research Systems (NYSE:FDS): FQ4 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.88 beats by $0.35; GAAP EPS of $2.29 misses by $0.05.
Revenue of $383.6M (+5.3% Y/Y) beats by $4.86M.
Accenture (NYSE:ACN): FQ4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.70 misses by $0.03; GAAP EPS of $1.99 beats by $0.26.
Revenue of $10.84B (-2.0% Y/Y) misses by $90M.
Accenture (NYSE:ACN) declares $0.88/share quarterly dividend, 10% increase from prior dividend of $0.80.
What I am reading today
Why isn’t Jamie Dimon going to jail?
School bus sized asteroid will ‘buzz’ earth today.
Visit Investing for Survival’s website (Home | Investing for Survival | Investingforsurvival.com) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.