The Morning Call
9/24/20
The Market
Technical
The Averages (26763, 3236) maintained their downward move (very short term downtrend), posting a new lower high on increased volume and weaker breadth. While I continue to believe that the long term bias is to the upside, the immediate trend is clearly down. The good news is that both indices have multiple support levels in near proximity: their 100 DMA’s (26208/3159), their 200 DMA’s (26208/3097) and the lower boundary of their short term trading ranges (18213/2991).
Gold got whacked again, finishing below the July/August minor support level for a second day. While its long term trends are up and support exists at its 100/200 DMA’s, this recent negative pin action can’t be ignore. TLT rebounded slightly. That is a plus, but it continues to struggle to push above the trend of lower highs and its 100 DMA (now resistance). The dollar jumped another ½%, ending above the upper boundary of its short term downtrend (if it remains there through the close on Friday, it will reset to a trading range) and setting a new higher high.
If the dollar successfully challenges its short term downtrend, it would suggest either a move to a safety trade or higher interest rates. But TLT is resisting a move lower (higher interest rates) and is trying to push higher (safety trade). On the other hand, GLD is breaking down, pointing to higher rates or a move away from a safety trade. Of course, the drop in equity prices can mean higher rates or a retreat to safety. In short confusion. Time to be careful.
VIX term structure shows rising uncertainty.
For Volatility Traders, November Election Will Be A Career "Maker Or Breaker"
Interactive Brokers hikes margin requirements.
Interactive Brokers Hikes Margins By 35% Ahead Of Election Market Chaos
Wednesday in the charts.
Dollarnado Slams Stocks, Gold, & Silver As Election Angst Spreads
Fundamental
Headlines
The Economy
US
Weekly jobless claims rose by 870,000 versus consensus of 843,000.
870,000 Americans Filed For First-Time Unemployment Benefits Last Week
The September flash manufacturing PMI came in at 53.5 versus forecasts of 53.1; the services PMI was 54.6 versus 54.7; the composite PMI was 54.4 versus 53.0.
International
The September German business climate index was reported at 92.6 versus expectations of 93.0; the current conditions index was 87.9 versus 89.0.
Other
The coronavirus
Overnight update.
Liberty or lockdown.
Bottom line
Estimating future stock returns.
Estimating Future Stock Returns, June 2020 Update
The most dangerous investment move you can make (must read).
The Most Dangerous Investing Move You Can Make
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
FactSet Research Systems (NYSE:FDS): FQ4 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.88 beats by $0.35; GAAP EPS of $2.29 misses by $0.05.
Revenue of $383.6M (+5.3% Y/Y) beats by $4.86M.
Accenture (NYSE:ACN): FQ4 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.70 misses by $0.03; GAAP EPS of $1.99 beats by $0.26.
Revenue of $10.84B (-2.0% Y/Y) misses by $90M.
Accenture (NYSE:ACN) declares $0.88/share quarterly dividend, 10% increase from prior dividend of $0.80.
What I am reading today
Why isn’t Jamie Dimon going to jail?
JPMorgan To Pay Record $1 Billion Settlement Over Precious Metals, Treasury Manipulation
School bus sized asteroid will ‘buzz’ earth today.
Watch Live: "School Bus" Sized Asteroid Expected To Buzz Earth Thursday
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