The Morning Call--Too Much Debt, Too Much Money, Too Much Lockdown
The Morning Call
9/29/20
The Market
Technical
The Averages (27584, 3351) continued their rally, with the S&P closing well above the trend of lower highs while the Dow finished right on that trend line. After bouncing off their 100 DMA last Thursday, the pin action suggests more upside and reinforces my long term view that the Market bias is to the upside. That is the good news. The bad news is that both had gap up opens, which, as you know, I believe will have to be filled.
Credit & Options Signal Stock Downside Concerns, BofA Outlines 'Tactical' Bull/Bear Signals
Update on margin debt.
Margin Debt and the Market: Up Another 5% in August
Gold had another good day, maintaining its rebound off its 100 DMA. Still, short term, it remains in a trend of lower highs and lower lows. TLT declined, ending below its 100 DMA (again) and continuing its struggle to keep its trend of higher lows intact. The dollar slumped but remained in a developing trend of higher lows. In short, the individual indices continue to send indecisive messages---not really supporting the strong move up in equities.
Monday in the charts.
Gold, Silver, & Stocks Surge As Real Yields Tumble
The emerging markets chart that you need to watch.
The EM Chart You Need To Watch - All Star Charts -
Fundamental
Headlines
The Economy
US
The July Case Shiller home price index rose 0.6% versus expectations of +0.2%.
The August trade balance was -$82.9 billion versus consensus of -$81.0 billion.
August wholesale inventories were up 0.5% versus forecasts of down 0.2%.
Month to date retail chain store sales were down less than anticipated from the prior week.
The September Dallas Fed manufacturing index was reported at 13.6 versus estimates of 5.0.
September Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview
International
August UK consumer credit rose L.3 billion versus projections of +L1.45 billion.
September EU economic sentiment came in at 91.1 versus predictions of 89.0; industrial sentiment was -11.1 versus -10.0; services sentiment was -11.1 versus -15.7; consumer confidence was -13.9, in line.
September German CPI came in down 0.4% versus expectations of -0.1%.
Other
Is the disinflationary scenario about to make a comeback?
Is The Post-Crash Reflation Trade Fading?
Or is inflation about to ratchet up?
"Inflation Is Already Here": The Fed May Have A Major Problem On Its Hands
The Fed
Will QEInfinity/Forever ever really end?
Fiscal Policy
$50 trillion in national debt is coming.
Great Reset Update: $50 Trillion Debt Coming
The coronavirus
Overnight update.
Confirmed COVID-19 Deaths Top 1 Million Mark, With Many More Uncounted: Live Updates
How accurate is the official coronavirus death toll stats?
https://issuesinsights.com/2020/09/25/is-the-official-covid-19-death-toll-accurate/
Bottom line. Too much debt, too much money, too much lockdown.
David Stockman On The Economy's Role In The Upcoming Presidential Election
If you run out of chips, you are out of the game.
Navigating Q4 2020: Paul Tudor Jones' 10 Investing Rules
Enormous uncertainty despite Fed fueled Market rise.
"Enormous Uncertainty" Despite Fed-Fueled Market Surge
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What I am reading today
Why isn’t every major bank CEO in jail?
Revenge of the Money Launderers
What is the conflict between Greece and Turkey all about?
What's The Conflict Between Greece And Turkey All About?
What is the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan all about?
Armenian-Azerbaijani War Rages In South Caucasus
A brain trick to make you more creative.
A Brain Trick to Make You More Creative, Intuitive, and Happy
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