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The Morning Call---Greed Comes Before The Fall

Dec. 02, 2020 9:13 AM ET
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Value, Growth At A Reasonable Price, Dividend Investing

Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2010

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 46 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder. Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns, managing a risk arbitrage hedge fund and an investment banking boutique specializing in funding second stage private companies. Through his involvement with Investing for Survival and Seeking Alpha, Steve hopes that his experience can help other investors build their wealth while avoiding tough lessons that he learned the hard way.

The Morning Call


The Market


Tuesday in the charts. Notable, with stocks having confirmed the break above their all time highs, the dollar and the long bond are now breaking below support levels with gold rallying off its 200 day moving average. In short, increased activity around major support/resistance levels suggesting changes in trends are developing.

Gold, Stocks, & Bond Yields Surge As Dollar Purge Continues

November’s historic rally may not bode well for December.

The stock market saw a historic November rally - here's why that might not bode well for December

Gold experiences its first big test in nine months.

Gold suffers its 1st real test of its long-term trend



The Economy


Month to date retail chain store sales were up big from the prior week.

Weekly mortgage applications declined 0.6% while purchase applications were up 9.0%.

October construction spending rose 1.3$ versus expectations of up 0.8%.

Construction Spending Increased 1.3% in October

The November final manufacturing PMI came in at 56.7, in line.

Markit Manufacturing Continues Improvement in November

The November ISM manufacturing index was reported at 57.5 versus predictions of 58.0.

November ISM Manufacturing Index: Continued Growth

The November ADP private payroll report showed job gains of 307,000 versus consensus of 410,000.

Big Miss On ADP Employment Suggests Labor Market Weakness Accelerating


October German retail sales were up 2.6% versus forecasts of +1.2%.

October EU unemployment came in at 8.4%, in line; October PPI was +0.4% versus +0.2%.

November Japanese consumer confidence was 33.7 versus estimates of 33.0.


October median household income.

Political Calculations: Median Household Income in October 2020

Framing lumber prices up 50% YoY.

Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up 50% Year-over-year

Fiscal Policy

How much debt is too much?

How Much Debt Is Too Much?

Foreign share of US debt plunging.

Foreign Share Of US Debt Plunging; Fed Picking Up The Slack

Biden’s economic team suggests focus on worker and income equality.

Biden's Economic Team Suggests Focus on Workers and Income Equality

The coronavirus

Surviving until next summer.

These 'Little Land Mines' Could Prevent a Summertime Boom


The second cold war.

The Second Cold War - Evergreen Gavekal

Bottom line. Greed comes before the fall (must read).

Greed Is Back

Market euphoria surpasses Dot.com levels.

Market Euphoria Surpasses Dot Com Levels: What's An Investor To Do?

Citibank warns 100% probability of losing money.

Citi Warns "100% Probability Of Loss" In Most "Euphoric" Market Since Dot Com Bubble

Making sense of sky high stock prices.

Making Sense of Sky-High Stock Prices | by Robert J. Shiller, Laurence Black and Farouk Jivraj - Project Syndicate

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

What I am reading today

Value is what I say it is.

Value Is What I Say It Is

Top shots from 2020 landscape photographer of the year.

Top Shots From the 2020 International Landscape Photographer of the Year

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (Home | Investing for Survival | Investingforsurvival.com) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

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