The Morning Call---Greed Comes Before The Fall
Value, Growth At A Reasonable Price, Dividend Investing
Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2010
The Morning Call
12/2/20
The Market
Technical
Tuesday in the charts. Notable, with stocks having confirmed the break above their all time highs, the dollar and the long bond are now breaking below support levels with gold rallying off its 200 day moving average. In short, increased activity around major support/resistance levels suggesting changes in trends are developing.
Gold, Stocks, & Bond Yields Surge As Dollar Purge Continues
November’s historic rally may not bode well for December.
The stock market saw a historic November rally - here's why that might not bode well for December
Gold experiences its first big test in nine months.
Gold suffers its 1st real test of its long-term trend
Fundamental
Headlines
The Economy
US
Month to date retail chain store sales were up big from the prior week.
Weekly mortgage applications declined 0.6% while purchase applications were up 9.0%.
October construction spending rose 1.3$ versus expectations of up 0.8%.
Construction Spending Increased 1.3% in October
The November final manufacturing PMI came in at 56.7, in line.
Markit Manufacturing Continues Improvement in November
The November ISM manufacturing index was reported at 57.5 versus predictions of 58.0.
November ISM Manufacturing Index: Continued Growth
The November ADP private payroll report showed job gains of 307,000 versus consensus of 410,000.
Big Miss On ADP Employment Suggests Labor Market Weakness Accelerating
International
October German retail sales were up 2.6% versus forecasts of +1.2%.
October EU unemployment came in at 8.4%, in line; October PPI was +0.4% versus +0.2%.
November Japanese consumer confidence was 33.7 versus estimates of 33.0.
Other
October median household income.
Political Calculations: Median Household Income in October 2020
Framing lumber prices up 50% YoY.
Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up 50% Year-over-year
Fiscal Policy
How much debt is too much?
Foreign share of US debt plunging.
Foreign Share Of US Debt Plunging; Fed Picking Up The Slack
Biden’s economic team suggests focus on worker and income equality.
Biden's Economic Team Suggests Focus on Workers and Income Equality
The coronavirus
Surviving until next summer.
These 'Little Land Mines' Could Prevent a Summertime Boom
China
The second cold war.
The Second Cold War - Evergreen Gavekal
Bottom line. Greed comes before the fall (must read).
Market euphoria surpasses Dot.com levels.
Market Euphoria Surpasses Dot Com Levels: What's An Investor To Do?
Citibank warns 100% probability of losing money.
Citi Warns "100% Probability Of Loss" In Most "Euphoric" Market Since Dot Com Bubble
Making sense of sky high stock prices.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What I am reading today
Value is what I say it is.
Top shots from 2020 landscape photographer of the year.
Top Shots From the 2020 International Landscape Photographer of the Year
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