The Morning Call
Wednesday in the charts. As stocks continue to rise, the long bond fell (if it closes below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend today, that trend will be negated) as well as the dollar (if it closes below the lower boundary of its short term trading range today, it will reset to a downtrend; if it closes below the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend on Friday, it will reset to a trading range)---all signs that investors believe the economy is improving.
Rising yields (lower bond prices) impact on other markets.
Historically, when yields gradually rise off a low, that has been a sign of an improving economy which in turn has been good for equities. However, when the rate of increase begins to accelerate or if the initial move is a spike versus a gradual increase that has been an indication mounting of inflation worries which has not been good for stocks. The point here is to watch the rate of price decline (yield rise) as a harbinger of stock market direction.
Currently, the percentage of stocks outperforming the S&P is the lowest since 1999.
And momentum is weakening.
Weekly jobless claims rose 712,000 versus predictions of 775,000.
November light vehicle sales came at 15.5 million versus forecasts of 16.2 million.
The Fed released its latest Beige Book report which contain no surprises. The slightly good news is that the economy and employment continue to recover. The slightly bad news is that four districts reported a falloff in growth beginning in early November.
October EU retail sales rose 1.5% versus projections of +0.8%.
The November final Japanese services PMI came in at 47.8 versus consensus of 46.7; the Chinese Caixin services PMI was 57.4 versus 56.4; the German services PMI was 46.0 versus 46.2; the EU services PMI was 41.7 versus 41.3; the UK services PMI was47.6 versus 45.8.
The November final Japanese composite PMI was 48.1 versus estimates of 47.0; the Chinese Caixin composite PMI was 57.5 versus 55.4; the German composite PMI was 51.7 versus 52.0; the EU composite was 45.3 versus 45.1; the UK composite was 49.0 versus 47.4.
Global manufacturing in November expanded at a rapid rate.
Cyber Monday spending hit record high.
OPEC makes headway on production cut agreement.
Common sense, science and nonscience.
Bottom line. Diversify, diversify, diversify.
Updated valuation measures.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Kroger (NYSE:KR): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.71 beats by $0.05; GAAP EPS of $0.80 beats by $0.16.
Revenue of $29.72B (+6.3% Y/Y) misses by $310M.
Donaldson (NYSE:DCI): FQ1 GAAP EPS of $0.48 beats by $0.04.
Revenue of $636.6M (-5.4% Y/Y) beats by $21.4M.
General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) declares $1.10/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) declares $0.56/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What I am reading today
Are you overinvested in stocks? The problem with this analysis is that if you up your exposure to bonds, in particular long dated maturities, you are also assuming a good deal of capital risk with no commensurate yield advantage. In other words, long bond yields are currently quite low. If stocks decline, one of the contributing causes will likely be rising yields (lower bond prices). So, which would you rather own today if they both go down in price tomorrow? ATT yielding 7% or a long bond yielding 2%
This 1000 year old Japanese business knows something about surviving a crisis.
Visit Investing for Survival’s website (Home | Investing for Survival | Investingforsurvival.com) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.
Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are long dci, gd, kr, MSFT.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.