The Morning Call--Expensive Markets Are More Dangerous Than You Think
The Morning Call
12/8/20
The Market
Technical
Monday in the charts. Notable, despite being up on the day, the long bond closed below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend, negating that trend, meaning higher rates ahead.
Bonds & Bullion Bid As Stocks Skid On Stimulus/Vaccine Stumble
From bond vigilantes to bond zombies.
The Carrie Trade: From Bond Vigilantes to Bond Zombies
The puzzle of low interest rates.
The Puzzle of Low Interest Rates
Fundamental
Headlines
The Economy
US
Month to date retail chain store sales grow fell dramatically from the prior week.
October consumer credit grew $7.2 billion versus estimates of +$16 billion.
Consumer Credit Misses Badly As Americans Unexpectedly Pay Down Credit Card Debt In October
Q3 nonfarm productivity increased 4.6% versus consensus of up 4.9%; unit labor costs fell 6.6% versus -8.9%.
International
The October Japanese leading economic indicators came in at 93.8 versus expectations of 93.2; household spending was up 2.1% versus +1.0%; cash earnings declined 0.8% versus -0.6%; Q3 final GDP growth was 5.3% versus 5.0% with capital spending down 2.4% versus -3.2%.
October German industrial production was up 3.2% versus projections of up 1.6%; December economic sentiment came in at 55.0 versus 45.5.
Q3 EU employment rose 1.0% versus forecasts of +0.9%; GDP growth was 12.5% versus +12.6%; December economic sentiment was reported at 54.4 versus 32.0
Other
Bracing for Brexit’s financial shock.
London Braces For Brexit's Financial Shockwave
The Fed
BIS issues warning solvency issues are growing.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bis-issues-dire-warning-we-are-moving-liquidity-solvency-phase-crisis
Fiscal Policy
Indiscriminate stimulus is absurd (must read).
Indiscriminate Stimulus in a Pandemic Is Absurd | National Review
Bottom line. Expensive markets are more dangerous than you think.
"More Dangerous Than You Think" - Global Stock Market Cap Tops $100 Trillion For First Time Ever
The fundamental problem with the bullish view.
The "Roaring 20s" - The Fundamental Problem Of The Bullish View
Are you a permabear?
Are You A Permabear? 12 Questions To Ask Yourself. - All Star Charts -
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Brown-Forman (NYSE:BF.B): FQ2 GAAP EPS of $0.50 misses by $0.02.
Revenue of $985M (-0.4% Y/Y) beats by $17.24M.
What I am reading today
As usual with Traderfeed, his trading advice has applicability to all of our life experiences.
How To Overcome Self-Critical Thinking and Tilt Trading
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