The Morning Call
2/25/21
The Market
Technical
Wednesday in the charts.
Stocks & Bonds Dumped-n-Pumped As Powell Promises 'Moar'
The long bond penetrated the lower boundary of its very short term trading range intraday but recovered to close above that level. The question is will this support level continue to hold?
Winners and losers in the bond market.
Reflation Trade's Winners And Losers In The Bond Market In 2021
Fundamental
Headlines
The Economy
US
The second estimate Q4 GDP growth was 4.1% versus forecasts of 4.2%; the price index was +1.8% versus +2.0%.
Q4 GDP Revised To 4.1%, Missing Expectations
Weekly jobless claims rose 730,000 versus predictions of 838,000.
First-Time Jobless-Benefits Seekers Plunge To COVID-Crisis Lows Amid Collapse In CA,OH Claims
January durable goods orders were up 3.4% versus expectations of +1.1%; ex transportation, they were up 1.4% versus +0.7%.
US Durable Goods Orders Surge In January To Pre-COVID Highs
January new home sales rose 4.3% versus consensus of +2.1%.
New Home Sales Up 4.3% in January
International
The December Japanese leading economic indicators came in at 95.3 versus projections of 94.9.
February EU consumer confidence was -14.5 versus projections of -14.8; economic sentiment was 93.4 versus 92.0; services sentiment was -17.1 versus -18.1; industrial sentiment was -3.3 versus -5.0.
March German consumer confidence was -13.9 versus estimates of -14.3.
Other
Closer to the breaking point.
David Rosenberg: "We're Getting Closer to a Breaking Point"
Architecture billings continue to contract.
AIA: "Architecture Billings continue to contract" in January
Mortgage delinquency rate decreased in January.
Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in January
The Fed
More gasoline on the fire.
Stocks & Bonds Suddenly Bid On Brainard, Powell Double-Dove-Down
Fiscal Policy
Why not print checks and give money away infinitely?
Why not just print and give away money infinitely?
More debt doesn’t grow the economy.
Grantham: More debt doesn't grow the economy.
Inflation
More positive feedback for the optimists.
Fiscal Spending Could Cause a U.S. Growth Spike - Compounding Investors' Concerns on Inflation
Still more: four reasons not to worry about inflation.
The coronavirus
Latest stats.
A Majority of Doses are Now Second Doses - Marginal REVOLUTION
Bottom line.
More for the optimists: three reasons why stocks can survive higher rates.
Here are 3 reasons that the stock market can survive rising bond yields in 2021
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What I am reading today
The sorry state of our political class.
Chicago Faces 135% Increase In Carjackings... So Dem Lawmakers Plan To Ban "Grand Theft Auto"
Reasons for optimism.
Reasons for optimism - health - Adam Smith Institute
New claim that Russia was behind JFK assassination---of course the authors are CIA, which has also been implicated.
Lee Harvey Oswald ordered to kill JFK by Soviets, ex-CIA chief claims
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