The Morning Call--What If Interest Rates Don't Matter?
The Morning Call
3/3/21
The Market
Technical
Tuesday in the charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rkt-takes-big-tech-black-gold-bitcoin-buck-stall-out
Is a head and shoulders forming in the ‘hot’ stocks.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/c5giawo4yi
Is latest bullishness a contrary indicator?
Which assets are overheating as liquidity collapses?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/temperature-check-which-asset-are-overheating-liquidity-collapses
Fundamental
Headlines
The Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications rose 0.5% while purchase applications were up 2.0%.
The February ADP private payrolls report showed job increases of 117,000 versus predictions of 177,000.
International
The January EU PPI was 1.4% versus forecasts of 1.2%.
The February Japanese services PMI was 46.3 versus 46.1 recorded in January.
The February Chinese Caixin services PMI was 51.5 versus 52.0 reported in January; the composite PMI was 51.7 versus 52.2 in January.
The February EU services PMI was 45.7 versus consensus of 44.7; the EU composite PMI was 49.8 versus 48.1; the German services PMI was 45.7 versus 45.9; the German composite PMI was 51.1 versus 51.3; the UK services PMI was 49.5 versus 49.7; the UK composite PMI was 49.6 versus 49.8.
Other
January median household income.
Over 11 million families at risk of losing housing.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/03/cfpb-over-11-million-families-at-risk.html
Housing prices up 10% YoY in January.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/03/corelogic-house-prices-up-100-year-over.html
The Fed
The Market demands more stimulus.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-demands-further-intervention-gimme-moar-stimmie
Inflation
Shortages everywhere you look.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/03/shortages-everywhere-you-look/
Stagflation cometh.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/stagflation-cometh
Bottom line
Update on valuations.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/03/02/is-the-stock-market-cheap
What if interest rates don’t matter?
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/02/what-if-interest-rates-dont-matter-as-much-as-we-think/
Buy the dip in bonds.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/guggenheims-minerd-powell-has-made-it-clear-buy-dip-bonds
Gold is dead.
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/gold-dead-move-billionaires-bet-bitcoin-draper-sees-5mm-price
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What I am reading today
Blindspot bias.
https://incognitomoneyscribe.com/2021/03/02/minding-your-blind-spots/
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