The Morning Call--Multiple Technical Challenges Occurring Again
Value, Growth At A Reasonable Price, Dividend Investing
Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2010
The Morning Call
3/4/21
The Market
Technical
The S&P once again broke below the lower boundary of its short term uptrend; if it remains there through the close on Friday, it will reset to a trading range. In addition, the long bond ended below the lower boundary of its very short term trading range; if it remains there through the close today, the trend will be voided. Clearly, investors still have the willies. Let’s see how this plays out.
Wednesday in the charts.
Stocks & Bonds Hammered As Hindenburg Omen Strikes
Is the puke coming?
NASDAQ breaks critical support level.
Nasdaq Crashes Through Critical Resistance, Gives Up March Gains
Fundamental
Headlines
The Economy
US
Q4 nonfarm productivity fell 4.2% versus expectations of -4.7%.
Weekly jobless claims rose 745,000 versus projections of 750,000.
The February services PMI was 59.8 versus estimates of 59.9; the composite PMI was 59.5 versus 58.8; the February ISM nonmanufacturing index was 55.3 versus 58.7; February light vehicle sales were 15.7 million versus 16.1 million in January.
International
January EU retail sales declined 5.9 versus forecasts of -1.1%; the January unemployment rate was 8.1% versus 8.3%; the February construction PMI was 45.0 versus December’s 44.1.
The February German construction PMI was 41.0 versus consensus of 46.6; the February UK construction PMI was 53.3 versus 51.0.
February Japanese consumer confidence was 33.8 versus 29.6 reported in January.
Other
The Fed
The Fed released its latest Beige Book. The most notable feature was it is starting to notice (drum roll, please)………inflationary pressures. Who woulda thunk?
Beige Book Escalates Inflation Warning: Sees Most Prices Rising "Moderately", Some "Notably"
Fiscal Policy
Bringing back earmarks would be a mistake.
Dear Congress: Bringing Back Pork Would Be a Disaster | National Review
Inflation
Inflation comes for the profligate.
Inflation Comes for the Profligate - Law & Liberty
The opposite of 2008.
The Opposite of 2008 | Epsilon Theory
The game is changing.
Inflation: The Game Has Shifted From Limbo to Hurdles
The Fed versus the market.
How High Could Inflation Soar In Coming Months... And What Will The Fed Do
Speculation
Everyone is talking bubbles. Is it time to act?
Everyone's Talking Bubbles. Is It Time To Act?
The coronavirus
The idiotsy of the lockdown (must read).
Lockdowns Could Reshape American Politics for a Generation, or Several
Bottom line
More on valuations.
Regression to Trend: Another Look at Long-Term Market Performance
February dividends by the numbers.
Political Calculations: Dividends by the Numbers in February 2021
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Brown-Forman (NYSE:BF.B): FQ3 GAAP EPS of $0.45 beats by $0.02.
Revenue of $911M (+1.3% Y/Y) beats by $8.71M.
General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) declares $1.19/share quarterly dividend, 8.2% increase from prior dividend of $1.10.
What I am reading today
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Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are long bf.b, GD.
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