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The Morning Call--Multiple Technical Challenges Occurring Again

Mar. 04, 2021 9:16 AM ETBF.A, BF.B, GD
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Value, Growth At A Reasonable Price, Dividend Investing

Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2010

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 46 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder. Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns, managing a risk arbitrage hedge fund and an investment banking boutique specializing in funding second stage private companies. Through his involvement with Investing for Survival and Seeking Alpha, Steve hopes that his experience can help other investors build their wealth while avoiding tough lessons that he learned the hard way.

The Morning Call


The Market


The S&P once again broke below the lower boundary of its short term uptrend; if it remains there through the close on Friday, it will reset to a trading range. In addition, the long bond ended below the lower boundary of its very short term trading range; if it remains there through the close today, the trend will be voided. Clearly, investors still have the willies. Let’s see how this plays out.

Wednesday in the charts.

Stocks & Bonds Hammered As Hindenburg Omen Strikes

Is the puke coming?

NASDAQ - base case intact

NASDAQ breaks critical support level.

Nasdaq Crashes Through Critical Resistance, Gives Up March Gains



The Economy


Q4 nonfarm productivity fell 4.2% versus expectations of -4.7%.

Weekly jobless claims rose 745,000 versus projections of 750,000.

The February services PMI was 59.8 versus estimates of 59.9; the composite PMI was 59.5 versus 58.8; the February ISM nonmanufacturing index was 55.3 versus 58.7; February light vehicle sales were 15.7 million versus 16.1 million in January.


January EU retail sales declined 5.9 versus forecasts of -1.1%; the January unemployment rate was 8.1% versus 8.3%; the February construction PMI was 45.0 versus December’s 44.1.

The February German construction PMI was 41.0 versus consensus of 46.6; the February UK construction PMI was 53.3 versus 51.0.

February Japanese consumer confidence was 33.8 versus 29.6 reported in January.


The Fed

The Fed released its latest Beige Book. The most notable feature was it is starting to notice (drum roll, please)………inflationary pressures. Who woulda thunk?

Beige Book Escalates Inflation Warning: Sees Most Prices Rising "Moderately", Some "Notably"

Fiscal Policy

Bringing back earmarks would be a mistake.

Dear Congress: Bringing Back Pork Would Be a Disaster | National Review


Inflation comes for the profligate.

Inflation Comes for the Profligate - Law & Liberty

The opposite of 2008.

The Opposite of 2008 | Epsilon Theory

The game is changing.

Inflation: The Game Has Shifted From Limbo to Hurdles

The Fed versus the market.

How High Could Inflation Soar In Coming Months... And What Will The Fed Do


Everyone is talking bubbles. Is it time to act?

Everyone's Talking Bubbles. Is It Time To Act?

The coronavirus

The idiotsy of the lockdown (must read).

Lockdowns Could Reshape American Politics for a Generation, or Several

Bottom line

More on valuations.

Regression to Trend: Another Look at Long-Term Market Performance

February dividends by the numbers.

Political Calculations: Dividends by the Numbers in February 2021

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Brown-Forman (NYSE:BF.B): FQ3 GAAP EPS of $0.45 beats by $0.02.

Revenue of $911M (+1.3% Y/Y) beats by $8.71M.

General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) declares $1.19/share quarterly dividend, 8.2% increase from prior dividend of $1.10.

What I am reading today

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (Home | Investing for Survival | Investingforsurvival.com) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are long bf.b, GD.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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