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The Morning Call--Powell Repeats His Shtick

Mar. 24, 2021 9:16 AM ETGIS
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Value, Growth At A Reasonable Price, Dividend Investing

Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2010

Steve Cook received his education in investments from Harvard, where he earned an MBA, New York University, where he did post graduate work in economics and financial analysis and the CFA Institute, where he earned the Chartered Financial Analysts designation in 1973. His 46 years of investment experience includes institutional portfolio management at Scudder. Stevens and Clark and Bear Stearns, managing a risk arbitrage hedge fund and an investment banking boutique specializing in funding second stage private companies. Through his involvement with Investing for Survival and Seeking Alpha, Steve hopes that his experience can help other investors build their wealth while avoiding tough lessons that he learned the hard way.

The Morning Call


The Market


Tuesday in the charts.

Russell Routed, Crude Crashed, Bonds Bid As Bull Market Turns One

Morgan Stanley identifies source of massive US Treasury sales.

Morgan Stanley Identifies The Source Of Massive Treasury Selling

Plus, there is the end of quarter portfolio rebalancing.

2021's Bond 'Bloodbath' Is The Worst In Decades

The outlook for the dollar.

The Dollar, Long & Short



The Economy


Weekly mortgage applications fell 2.5% while purchase applications were up 2.6%.

Month to date retail chain store sales continued to fall at the same rate as the prior week.

February new home sales declined 18.2% versus consensus of -6.5%.

New Home Sales decrease to 775,000 Annual Rate in February

(New home prices)

New Home Prices

February durable goods orders declined 1.1% versus predictions of +0.8%; ex transportation, they were down 0.9% versus +0.6%.

The March Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at 17 versus 14 recorded in February.


January UK unemployment was 5.0% versus projections of 5.2%; February CPI was +0.1% versus +0.5%; February PPI was +0.6% versus +0.7%; the March flash manufacturing PMI was 57.9 versus 55.0; the flash service PMI was 56.8 versus 51.0; the flash composite was 56.6 versus51.1.

The March Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 52.0 versus estimates of 52.0; the flash services PMI was 46.5 versus 45.8 reported in February; the flash composite PMI was 48.3 versus 48.2 in February.

The March German flash manufacturing PMI was 66.6 versus expectations of 60.8; the flash services PMI was 50.8 versus 46.2; the flash composite PMI was 56.8 versus 51.6.

The March EU flash manufacturing PMI was 62.4 versus forecasts of 57.7; the flash services PMI was 48.8 versus 46.0; the flash composite PMI was 52.5 versus 49.1.


The Fed

In testimony before the senate yesterday, Powell stuck to his thesis: economy is improving but not fast enough. The Fed will do ‘whatever is necessary’ to insure a recovery. Inflation is not a problem. Yeh, right.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell Warns Of Long Road Ahead To Recover Millions Of Lost Jobs

Fiscal Policy

The many faces of government default.

The Many Faces of Government Default - Law & Liberty


Rent: from headwind to tailwind.

Rent: From Headwind To Tailwind

Get ready for some serious sticker shock.

"Get Ready For Some Serious Sticker Shock Very Soon: This Jump In Inflation Won't Be Transient"

The reliability of core versus headline inflation in projecting the trend.

Core Inflation Is Probably A Better Measure Of The Trend

The coronavirus

Death and lockdowns.

Death and Lockdowns | City Journal

Bottom line. As long as investors believe that the Fed will bail them out (QE and yield curve control), the assumption has to be that the Market will have an upward bias. What likely ends this affair is some event (or series of events) that causes investors to lose faith in the Fed. My belief is that that will almost surely occur. Until then with valuations in the nosebleed section, I am happy to miss what upside remains.

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

General Mills (NYSE:GIS): FQ3 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.82 misses by $0.02; GAAP EPS of $0.96 beats by $0.12.

Revenue of $4.52B (+8.1% Y/Y) beats by $60M.

What I am reading today

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (Home | Investing for Survival | Investingforsurvival.com) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are long GIS.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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