The Morning Call--Biden's New Spending Plan
Value, Growth At A Reasonable Price, Dividend Investing
Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2010
The Morning Call
3/30/21
The Market
Technical
Monday in the charts.
Cryptos Jump, Small Caps Dump As 'Archegeddon' Hits Banks, Bonds, & Bullion
The validity of seasonal trading patterns.
Opinion: April has been bullish for stocks but you shouldn't bet on a repeat this year
Bond seasonality is turning bullish.
Don't Look Now, But Bond Seasonality Is Turning Bullish
Bonds and bullion dumped as cryptos and the dollar rally.
Bonds & Bullion Are Being Dumped As Bitcoin & The Dollar Surge
US yields surging further.
Mighty US yields surging further
How a blowup at a hedge fund is rattling markets.
And a behind the curtain look at how the above happened.
How Goldman And Morgan Stanley Broke Ranks And Triggered The Biggest Margin Call Since Lehman
Buffett indicator screaming sell.
Buffet indicator screaming sell
Fundamental
Headlines
The Economy
US
The March Dallas Fed manufacturing index came in at 28.9 versus 17.2 recorded in February.
March Dallas Fed Manufacturing
International
The February Japanese unemployment rate was 2.9% predictions of 3.0%.
March EU consumer confidence came in at -10.8, in line; industrial sentiment was 2.0 versus 0; services sentiment was -9.3 versus -14.4.
March German CPI was +0.5%, in line.
Other
The March regional Fed banks manufacturing survey.
March Regional Fed Manufacturing Overview
Framing lumber prices continue to rise sharply.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/03/update-framing-lumber-prices-up-sharply.html
Long live debtism.
https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2021/03/24/capitalism-is-dead-long-live-debtism/
Survey of inflation expectations.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/03/a-bunch-of-year-ahead-inflation-forecasts
Fiscal Policy
Biden to introduce major spending bill Wednesday. Even though I am not in general all that positive about more big government spending programs, there are circumstances under which they can be a plus. One, if they finance infrastructure spending (i.e., projects that improve the national productivity---roads, bridges, airports, etc.). Two, if they are paid for with something besides more debt (i.e., taxes). The current narrative out of the administration is that most of the spending is for infrastructure and that it intends to pay for those projects with tax increases. Of course, the current narrative lacks specifics on both; so, my point here is that it is too soon to say whether Biden’s plans would be good or bad fiscal policy.
Inflation
Inflation is always a political choice,
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inflation-always-political-choice
Bottom line
Anything can happen.
https://allstarcharts.com/anything-can-happen/
Is the SPAC bubble about to burst?
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2021/03/ponzis-go-boom.html
Stock buybacks soar.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/zero-lessons-learned-stock-buybacks-soar-all-time-high
The positives and negatives of a transaction tax.
Ed Yardini raises his outlook for 2021/22 S&P earnings and year end valuation.
http://blog.yardeni.com/2021/03/high-octane-earnings.html
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
FactSet Research Systems (NYSE:FDS): FQ2 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.72 misses by $0.01; GAAP EPS of $2.50 misses by $0.08.
Revenue of $391.79M (+6.0% Y/Y) in-line.
What I am reading today
Human creativity is boundless.
Thirty of the best nature photos from the Tokyo International Foto awards (must see).
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Analyst's Disclosure: I am/we are long fds.
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