The Morning Call---Toot A Loo 'Transitory'
Value, Growth At A Reasonable Price, Dividend Investing
Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2010
The Morning Call
12/1/21
The Market
Technical
Tuesday in the charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-sparks-taper-tantrum-bonds-scream-policy-error
More selling to come?
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cdeaqkvcmc
Two items: (1) the Dow ended below its 100 DMA for the third day, reverting to resistance and (2) the S&P finished below the lower boundary of its short term uptrend; if it remains there through the close on Thursday, it will reset to a trading range. Even if this challenge is successful, remember from late Spring to mid Fall, the S&P broke its short term uptrend several times only to quickly reset to an uptrend. The point being that it is too soon to get squirrely.
What the VIX is telling us….or not.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/timetosell
Fundamental
Headlines
The Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications fell 7.2% while purchase applications were up 5.1%.
Month to date retail chain store sales grew slightly faster than in the prior week.
The September Case Shiller home price index rose 0.8% versus consensus of +0.9%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-home-price-acceleration-slowed-very-modestly-september
The November Chicago PMI came in at 61.8 versus expectations of 67.0.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/11/30/chicago-pmi-slips-in-november
November consumer confidence was reported at 109.5 versus predictions of 111.0
The November ADP private payroll report showed job increases of 534,000 versus estimates of 525,000.
International
Q3 Japanese YoY capital spending was up 1.2% versus forecasts of +4.4%; the November final manufacturing PMI was 54.5 versus 54.2.
October German retail sales declined 0.3% versus projections of +1.0%; the November final manufacturing PMI was 57.4 versus 57.6.
The November EU final manufacturing PMI came in at 58.4 versus consensus of 58.6; the November UK final manufacturing PMI was 58.1 versus 58.2.
Other
The Fed
How many times have I said in these pages that the Fed has never, ever, ever effectively managed a transition from easy to normal monetary policy? Yesterday, in his senate testimony, Powell said that the Fed is dropping ‘transitory’ from its inflation lexicon, sounding quite hawkish after a much more moderate narrative on Monday and apparently preparing the economy/Markets for the consequences a prolonged period of inflation and a tighter than heretofore expected monetary policy. Of course, given the Fed’s ‘on the one hand, on the other hand’ communication strategy, who knows what he will say today if the Market crashes. I tol’ you.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-tumble-powell-warns-accelerated-taper
The end of free money.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Mastercard (NYSE:MA) has announced a new share repurchase program to buyback up to $8B of its Class A common stock.
What I am reading today
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