The Morning Call--A Big Day In Central Bank Land
Value, Growth At A Reasonable Price, Dividend Investing
Seeking Alpha Analyst Since 2010
The Morning Call
12/16/21
The Market
Technical
Wednesday in the charts.
Turbo-Taper Sparks Market Turmoil; Yield-Curve, Dollar Signal 'Policy Error'
What is the pain trade now?
"Under risked" - what is the main pain trade?
Fundamental
Headlines
The Economy
US
Weekly jobless claims were up 206,000 versus predictions of 200,000.
Initial Jobless Claims Rebound From 52-Year-Lows
November housing starts rose 11.8% versus forecasts of +4.3%; building permits were up 3.6% versus flat.
US Housing Starts Surged In November
The December Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was reported at 19 versus estimates of 27.
The December housing index came in at 84 versus consensus of 83.
International
The October EU trade balance was +E3.6 billion versus projections of +E7.6 billion.
The November Japanese trade balance was -Y954.8 billion versus expectations of -Y675 billion.
The December flash Japanese manufacturing PMI was 57.0 versus predictions of 54.6; the flash services PMI was 51.1 versus 53.1; the flash composite PMI was 51.8 versus 52.6; the December flash German manufacturing PMI was 57.9 versus 56.8; the flash services PMI was 49.4 versus 51.0; the flash composite PMI was 50.0 versus 51.1; the December flash EU manufacturing PMI was 58.0 versus 57.8; the flash services PMI was 53.3 versus 54.1; the flash composite PMI was 53.4 versus 54.0; the December flash UK manufacturing PMI was 57.5, in line; the flash services PMI was 53.2 versus 57.0; the flash composite PMI was 53.2 versus 56.4.
Other
The global economy continues to cool.
Political Calculations: Earth's Economy Continued Cooling in November 2021
China’s economic activity slowed in November.
China's Economic Activity Slowed in November on Property Slump, Weak Consumption
Germany on the brink of recession.
Europe's biggest economy is on the brink of a winter recession
The appreciation in the dollar threatens the global economy.
Dollar Appreciation Threatens The Global Economy
Economic zombification.
COVID-19 Economic Zombification
The Fed
Unless you have been camping in the outback, you know that the FOMC met Tuesday and Wednesday. A change in policy was expected and that is what we got (1) tapering beginning in January, (2) rates rising as soon as next year. While those moves had been well telegraphed, judging by the Market’s very positive reaction, investors apparently feared a more hawkish policy.
As you know, I believe this move toward monetary policy normalization is way overdue. As such I don’t think that the inequities (the misallocation of resources, the mispricing of risk) that QEForever created in the economy/Market are going to be fixed anytime soon. So, my forecast of a struggling economy hasn’t changed. In addition, I think that there is still a decent probability of stagflation---though I am less confident in this prediction.
The FOMC statement:
FOMC Statement: Accelerate Taper
The dot plot:
FOMC Projections and Press Conference
The Fed has some heavy lifting to do.
"Consumers Spending At The Fastest Pace We've Ever Seen"
The ECB maintains its dovish policy.
ECB To Discontinue Pandemic Purchase Programme In March, Boosts Core QE Pace To €40BN In Q2
Bank of England raises rates.
Cable Spikes After Bank Of England Unveils Surprise Rate-Hike
Fiscal Policy
The high price of Bidenomics.
The High Price of Bidenomics - The American Spectator | USA News and Politics
The lies our ruling class tells.
No Psaki, the cost of BBB isn't 'fake' - because Washington always lies about spending
Bottom line
Update on S&P earnings, revenues and margins.
Financial misinformation.
The Age of Financial Misinformation - Of Dollars And Data
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What I am reading today
The pluses and minuses of blockchain technology.
As you know, I normally try to avoid political narratives; but this author, in my opinion, makes some good points on the role wokism has played in the widening wealth gap in this country.
How the Chinese trade deal led to the Great Awokening
Quote of the day.
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