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Overconfidence, Big Markets And Big Bubbles - A Good Read For 2016 (Read Before Your Unicorn IPOs Or Before Your MOMO Stock Reports Q Results)

A great read from my bookmarks (August 2015) that I decided to dig out today after the earnings of momentum and tech companies like $GPRO, $DATA and $LNKD...

In early October of 2013, I was sitting in CNBC, waiting to talk about Twitter, which had just filed its prospectus (for its initial public offering). I was sharing the room with an analyst who was very bullish on the company, and he asked me what I thought Twitter was worth. When I replied that I had not had a chance to value the company yet, he suggested that I should save myself the trouble, and that the stock was worth at least $60 a share. Curious, I asked him why, and he said that Twitter would use its large user base to make money in the "huge" online advertising market. When I questioned him on how huge the market was, his answer was that he did not have a number, but he just knew that it was "really big". I am thankful to him, since he framed how I started my valuation of Twitter, which is with an assessment of the size of the online advertising market globally. Since I talked to that analyst, I have also become more more aware of the big market argument, and I have seen it used over and over in other markets, often as the primary and sometimes the only reason for assigning high values to companies in these markets. These analysts may very well be right about these markets being very big, but I think that suggesting that a company will be assured growth and profits, just because it targets these markets, not only misses several intermediate steps, but also exposes investors and business-owners to the macro delusion. (...)

It is therefore dangerous to base your argument for investing in a company and assigning it high value entirely on the size of the market that it serves, but that danger does not seem stop analysts and investors from doing so.

Here are four [current as of mid-2015, every decade / busines cycles has its own] examples:

- China

- Online Advertising

- Sharing Economy

- "The Cloud"

Another one of these secotrs is or will be Transport as a Service and autonomous driving:

I am sure that you will find more examples add to the list. For example, just a couple of weeks ago, Morgan Stanley issued a strong buy recommendation on Tesla and based it entirely on its potential growth in the "mobility services" market. It took me two readings of the report for me to figure out that the mobility service market was a hybrid of the car sharing and driverless car markets, a potentially huge market, that would have become even enormous, if you were able to slap ads on the cars and put them in China. (...)


Disclosure: I am/we are short TSLA.

Additional disclosure: I was also short GPRO until late 2015 (I no longer hold a position in GPRO)