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AEGR's “acceleration” Does Not Add Up

|Includes: Novelion Therapeutics, Inc. (NVLN)

RE: Aegerion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AEGR)

(Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattBerry01)

Aegerion's "acceleration" in patient count does not add up. In fact, its third quarter revenue is more consistent with flat patient growth.

Is this why Aegerion suddenly stopped revealing patient counts last quarter?

See full article at: http://www.3footcrowbar.com/2013/11/aegrs-acceleration-does-not-add-up.html

This only adds more suspicion to Aegerion. As demonstrated in my previous article, "Estimates of Aegerion's addressable market at odds by 1,000%,"[1] the company's CEO has been promoting a US HoFH population of 3,000, while the very scientists associated with Aegerion put the number at 300. Even a Nobel Prize winner put the number at 300, in his acceptance speech. And now we have new questions surrounding the number of patients on therapy.

Thesis:

Calculating AEGR's revenue at zero patient growth and then accounting for multi-month shipments yields a total roughly equal to AEGR's actual reported revenue, suggesting that there was no growth in patients for the 3rd quarter.

Disclosure: I am short AEGR.