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Potential short setup in (GMF) - March 18, 2011

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The Wagner Daily - March 18, 2011
Concise technical analysis and picks of the leading global ETFs


Stocks registered a solid session of gains on Thursday but trade was light. The market gapped higher at the open and spent the entire day mired in a trading range. All five major indices were up on the day, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average leading the advance. The blue chip index gained 1.4% on Thursday. The S&P 500 tacked on 1.3%, while the Nasdaq, S&P MidCap 400 and small-cap Russell 2000 ended the session up by 0.7%, 0.8% and 0.2% respectively.

Market internals ended the session mixed. Volume was noticeably down across the board. Turnover on the Nasdaq plunged by over 23%, while on the Big Board it fell by nearly 30%. The advancing to declining volume ratio ended the day at 4.2 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.8 to 1 on the Nasdaq. Thursday's action appeared devoid of institutional involvement.

Our open positions in QID, EUM and RTH (short) are performing as we anticipated. EUM struggled yesterday but held support at our initial entry price. RTH was very weak compared to the broad market on Thursday. Should the market come under selling pressure on Friday, RTH could fall hard.

The iPath DJ-UBS Livestock Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSEARCA:COW) gapped down violently below both the 20 and 50 day moving averages on March 15th. Since then, COW has undercut the 200-day MA and is now poised to fill the gap. A rally back into the 20-day EMA could present a short entry trigger for this ETF. We are monitoring COW closely for a possible short entry.

The SPDR S&P Emerging Asia Pacific ETF (NYSEARCA:GMF) has lost support of the 200-day MA for the second time in as many months. Yesterday, this ETF closed near the low of the session on strong volume. A drop below the three day low of $78.35 could result in significant downside for GMF. For more aggressive traders, a partial short position could be entered below Thursday's low. GMF is not an official setup but we are monitoring it closely for a possible short entry.

Yesterday's lack of volume took a good bit of luster off of a positive day in the market. Further, there was divergence within the market. The Nasdaq, S&P MidCap 400 and small-cap Russell 2000 showed distinct relative weakness to the DJIA and the S&P 500. The rally clearly lacked broad based participation. NOTE: Today is a quadruple witching options expiration day. Typically this means there is a greater likelihood of increased volume and volatility. Index options, index futures, stock options and single stock futures all expire today.

The commentary above is an abbreviated version of our daily ETF trading newsletter, The Wagner Daily. Subscribers to the full version receive specific ETF trade setups with detailed trigger, stop, and target prices, as well as daily updates on all open positions. Intraday Trade Alerts are also sent via e-mail and/or text message, on as-needed basis. For your free 1-month trial to the full version of The Wagner Daily, or to learn about our other services, please visit

Deron Wagner is the Founder and Head Portfolio Manager of Morpheus Trading Group, a capital management and trader education firm launched in 2001. Wagner is the author of the best-selling book, Trading ETFs: Gaining An Edge With Technical Analysis (Bloomberg Press, August 2008), and also appears in the popular DVD video, Sector Trading Strategies (Marketplace Books, June 2002). He is also co-author of both The Long-Term Day Trader (Career Press, April 2000) and The After-Hours Trader (McGraw Hill, August 2000). Past television appearances include CNBC, ABC, and Yahoo! FinanceVision. Wagner is a frequent guest speaker at various trading and financial conferences around the world, and can be reached by sending e-mail to:

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