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Nasdaq Selloff: Why It May Now Be Time To Patiently Sit On The Sidelines

Feb. 23, 2021 3:26 PM ETInvesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ)
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  • For those running growth stock trading systems, conditions have deteriorated especially with the Nasdaq trading below the 20ema on the daily.
  • Leading stocks have not been acting well the past few weeks. failing to make a ton of progress at new highs.
  • Stocks need to base out for a few weeks to produce reliable buy points.

Nasdaq Selloff: Why It May Now Be Time to Patiently Sit on the Sidelines

By Deron Wagner | February 23, 2021

trading education articles

market timing model

Our market timing model has a 19-year history of keeping us out of harm’s way when stocks suddenly reverse. Here’s what the model is telling us about the current state of the Nasdaq.

Our stock trading strategy is based on capturing moves of 20-40% (or more) in high relative strength growth stocks in a clear uptrend.

We also like to see the major indices should in a clear uptrend, which puts the wind on our back.

With Monday’s (February 22) close below the 20-day exponential moving average in both the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX) and S&P Midcap Index ($MDY), the dominant market uptrend is now in danger of reversing.

A closing price below Monday’s low in the Nasdaq Composite would confirm the break of the 20-day EMA, and increase the odds of lower to sideways price action during the next few weeks.

Continue reading to discover why now may be the perfect time to shift out of the Nasdaq and protect your hard-earned profits.

Proven power of the 20-day EMA

As we have seen in the past, there could be a false break of Monday’s low that leads to a quick reversal back above the 20-day EMA. Such a move would negate the sell signal.

No indicator is perfect, but the break of the 20-day EMA is a simple and reliable way to let us know when the wind is no longer at our back.

Prior to now, there have been two previous tests of the 20-day EMA this year.

On the chart below, notice how the 20-day EMA (beige line) perfectly acted as support to keep the uptrend intact:

When doing broad market analysis, it’s also important to look at the longer-term weekly chart time frame to remove the “noise” from the shorter-term charts.

On the weekly chart below, notice the Nasdaq is coming into support of its 10-week moving average.

A few weeks of base building near current prices (consolidation) would be ideal.

Notice the Nasdaq Composite has not touched the 10-week MA since November 2020:

Price action in leading stocks has definitely been ugly in recent days, but we have actually been seeing sector rotation out of tech leadership and into lagging industry groups.

Notice how the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) actually closed positive on Monday with a bullish reversal candlestick:

3 strikes? Time to sit on the sidelines

When determining the health of the market, we first start with the price and volume action in current open positions and leading growth stocks.

We then move to the major indices.

When we get three sell signals (three strikes), we immediately tighten stops on existing positions and avoid new buy entries until conditions improve to generate a new buy signal in our proprietary market timing model.

Currently, we have:

  • Strike 1 – New buy entries in our Wagner Daily model portfolio have failed to impress with substantial gains.
  • Strike 2 – Top growth stocks have struggled the past few weeks, with little to no follow through on breakout attempts (including failed breakouts).
  • Strike 3? – If the Nasdaq Composite closes below its 20-day EMA, the index is no longer in a clear uptrend.

In today’s swing trading report, we notified subscribers that we are now shifting to cash by avoiding new trade entries and greatly tightening stops on the few remaining positions.

CASH is always a valid position–we are quite content to wait on the sidelines and protect our massive gains of recent months.

As history has proven over the years, our rule-based market timing model does a fantastic job of quickly and automatically getting us out of harm’s way when stocks suddenly reverse.

To learn more, press here to see how we preserved gains and avoided massive losses when the major indices plunged sharply lower in late February 2020 (start of the coronavirus sell-off).

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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