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Our Market Timing Model Switches From "Buy" To "Neutral"

Aug. 03, 2012 12:04 PM ETQQQ, SPY, DIA, IWM, MDY
Please Note: Blog posts are not selected, edited or screened by Seeking Alpha editors.

Even though the benchmark S&P 500 Index has been outperforming the other averages lately, Wednesday's (August 1) heavy selling was the second day in a row of institutional distribution (higher volume losses). Two days of distribution so close to a bullish follow-through day is usually bad news for the bulls. As such, because of the mixed signals, our rule-based market timing model has just switched to "neutral." This occurs when the broad market is attempting to form a bottom and we receive a buy signal that doesn't follow through (false buy signal). Rather than switching back to "sell" mode, we adjust the model to "neutral." In this mode, we can either go long or short; however, our position size on all positions is light because market conditions are not ideal... [read rest of article]

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