Dear Reader,

I would like to start the week by mentioning the oppportunity for a 150 pips potential movemement down on the euro.

The EURUSD is trading in a range between 1.368 and 1.345 since a week. That makes a 230 pips game range. The price failed to break up two times already, which makes me consider taking the short side of the pair.

We are now trading around 1.36. It means that to benefit form this trade, one would have to risk 80 pips that it gets back to 1.368 versus gaining 150 pips to the 1.345.

There will be a test at 1.358 and if it goes thourgh, it is going to look good.

If it breaks down, I will increase my position on the short side until 1.345.

If it reverses, I have my stop loss at 1.368 and will change my views when we reach this level. If it breaks the 1.368, I will change to a long euro position but before that I remain short.

You will find below my calculated implied probabilities for the moment:

On the downside: |
1-Mar-10 | 10:56 AM | Spot | 1.3603 | ||||||||

Market implies a | 20.0% | chance of having the | EURUSD | touching | 1.3291 | before the | 8-Mar-10 | -> | 312 | pips from spot | ||

Market implies a | 30.0% | chance of having the | EURUSD | touching | 1.3356 | before the | 8-Mar-10 | -> | 247 | pips from spot | ||

Market implies a | 40.0% | chance of having the | EURUSD | touching | 1.3407 | before the | 8-Mar-10 | -> | 196 | pips from spot | ||

Market implies a | 50.0% | chance of having the | EURUSD | touching | 1.3448 | before the | 8-Mar-10 | -> | 155 | pips from spot | ||

Market implies a | 60.0% | chance of having the | EURUSD | touching | 1.3484 | before the | 8-Mar-10 | -> | 119 | pips from spot | ||

Market implies a | 70.0% | chance of having the | EURUSD | touching | 1.3516 | before the | 8-Mar-10 | -> | 87 | pips from spot | ||

Market implies a | 80.0% | chance of having the | EURUSD | touching | 1.3546 | before the | 8-Mar-10 | -> | 57 | pips from spot | ||

Market implies a | 90.0% | chance of having the | EURUSD | touching | 1.3574 | before the | 8-Mar-10 | -> | 29 | pips from spot | ||

On the upside: |
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Market implies a | 90.0% | chance of having the | EURUSD | touching | 1.3628 | before the | 8-Mar-10 | -> | 25 | pips from spot | ||

Market implies a | 80.0% | chance of having the | EURUSD | touching | 1.3654 | before the | 8-Mar-10 | -> | 51 | pips from spot | ||

Market implies a | 70.0% | chance of having the | EURUSD | touching | 1.3681 | before the | 8-Mar-10 | -> | 78 | pips from spot | ||

Market implies a | 60.0% | chance of having the | EURUSD | touching | 1.3710 | before the | 8-Mar-10 | -> | 107 | pips from spot | ||

Market implies a | 50.0% | chance of having the | EURUSD | touching | 1.3741 | before the | 8-Mar-10 | -> | 138 | pips from spot | ||

Market implies a | 40.0% | chance of having the | EURUSD | touching | 1.3777 | before the | 8-Mar-10 | -> | 174 | pips from spot | ||

Market implies a | 30.0% | chance of having the | EURUSD | touching | 1.3819 | before the | 8-Mar-10 | -> | 216 | pips from spot | ||

Market implies a | 20.0% | chance of having the | EURUSD | touching | 1.3874 | before the | 8-Mar-10 | -> | 271 | pips from spot |

Ejoy your trades!

Remy